How Could The Bookies Have Got It So Wrong?

[sandyRoe]

If the opinions of ABers on the subject of Britex is a true reflection of the country as a whole the bookies are in for a drubbing. You can get odds of 7/2 (£2 would win you £7) on an out majority.
They're usually pretty good at predicting political events. Why are they going wrong here?

[waterboatman]

I might have a couple of bob on that then sandy! :o}

[naomi24]

According to a recent poll, the outers are on the up.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/31/uk-voters-leaning-towards-brexit-guardian-poll-reveals

[alavahalf]

In the last few weeks I have only met 1 person who says .. In .. absolutely everyone else says out. I have given it little thought and just assumed it was a formality.
May just have a look at the odds available .. and perhaps chuck a pony at it ?

[mikey4444]

Sandy....the opinion of people here on AB is hardly typical of the country as a whole. Right-wingers out number lefties like me by a large percentage, and that is not reflected nationwide, when it comes to the ballot box.

Of course, I will get my usual stick for saying this, so its no surprise that more lefties don't pop their heads above the parapet often enough.

[fiction-factory]

Yes, the AB membership doesn't reflect the overall voting population in terms of age but also in terms of ethnic background

[mikey4444]

FF....yes, I forgot about that aspect !

[Old_Geezer]

Everyone is an old white bloke here; elsewhere they're all young black lasses.

[mikey4444]

OG...Am I old yet ? I'm soon to be 63..........when will I become "elderly" though ?

I am trying to get old as disgracefully as I can, according to my nieces, which I take as a compliment !

[Ken4155]

The odds compilers will be keeping a very close eye on the mood of the nation, sandy, and will alter the odds accordingly. Sometimes it is he who shouts loudest who gains the most attention and perhaps the 'outies' have been shouting bit louder than the 'inies' this last week or so. I've just consulted 'Oddschecker' and the best price i see for a brexit is 11/4, so that price has shortened a tad lately, whilst a remain vote is @ 1/3. According to the bookies, the most likely outcome would be a remain vote with a majority of 55% - 60% which is available in places @ 9/4.
But, as has already been said, the opinions of ABers certainly do not reflect society as a whole, so i wouldn't be rushing to the betting shop with my £2 just yet, if i were you:-)

[mikey4444]

Thanks Ken...makes sense !

[Marshwarble]

"If the opinions of AB on the subject of Britex (sic) is a true reflection of the country as a whole..."

I thought you knew that ABers are a select few? You could place a bet on it if you like, but have a look at liberal websites too, see what they're saying?

[sandyRoe]

I'm an 'in' man.
There was mention of a pony on out earlier. I'd need a monkey on in just to win the price of a decent bottle of bubbly to celebrate the result.
I'll not bother.

[sandyRoe]

I'm sure the board of AB is totally impartial on the subject. A bit like the governor of the Bank of England.
I said, 'If the opinion of ABers...'. I meant the contributors.

[Old_Geezer]

We all know that your persona here is an old white male, Mikey, but that in reality you are a svelte Amazon diva.

[mikey4444]

Svelte ?...if only OG !

[dannyk13]

I think that the reason for the Brexit vote being high on this site is that many ABers can remember the days before we joined the EU

[CleeMan]

Danny, the reason for the high BREXIT vote on here is because of the number of middle England DM readers who believe everything they read in that rag.

[Peter Pedant]

damn I misread that as 7-2 on an in majority and I had emptied my piggy bank and put om ,,y cloth cap .....

certain logical fallacies there Sandy - the referendum outcome is a future fact - we havent had it yet so the question becomes why are the odds at Bob Done so different from the usual diet we are subjected to on a daily basis here ? Good question

I guess the answer is the same reason that in the 1948 Truman election, one newspaper led with 'Dewey by a landslide' - if you recall the landslide poll was done by telephone and those without phones turned out and voted Truman. That is there was selection by telephone

The vocal brexiters on AB mixed in with the usual cryptoNazis and pegida supporters are a self selected group, with the right of free speech I hasten to add.

I do a Brexit count on new news threads each day now
it is running at 5/6. None of the arguments are new. I am doing a lot of knitting nowadays

Bif thing amongst pollsters - if you ask random people in the city of london you will get a lot of city slickers so should you in a poll fill quotas ( " quota filling" ) to get the correct proportion of blue collar workers, street sweeepers and so on? Clearly quota filling is selection on criteria and not random ( so the stats may be invalid )

[Peter Pedant]

To detect a 5% spread in voting - 47.5% out and 52.5% in p9lling you would need a sample of 400 people in order to be sure

( called a power calculation ) do they polll that many ?

49-51 you would need to sample at least a thousand to detect it reliably

[dannyk13]

Cleeman, Are you implying that ABers cannot think for themselves?