Booming Britain.......

[ToraToraTora]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12068319/Booming-Britain-to-become-worlds-fourth-largest-economy-as-France-and-Italy-face-G8-exclusion.html
Looks like the "project fear" brigade had it badly wrong.

[Old_Geezer]

Nice to see, but surely speculation.

[jim360]

It's odd that economic predictions are only accurate and trustworthy when they happen to agree with your preconceptions. What an odd coincidence.

[mikey4444]

Not so bloody marvelous if you work for Lloyds Bank ::

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36911896

[ToraToraTora]

jim, it's in the Torygraph, must be true.

Mikey: it is if you have shares in them!

[grumpy01]

Nor for its customers if they rely on rural public transport to get them to a branch in the next town if their branch closes.

[jim360]

The prediction is worth very little as surely it will massively depend on the outcome of Brexit negotiations, among a host of other factors. I mean, I'd like to see it become true but saying this means Project Fear was badly wrong is just far far too premature. And I suspect you know that really.

[bazwillrun]

The banks have been trying to close their branches for yonks, so no surprises there, even though some would love to blame brexit...

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-3710968/Brexit-won-t-stop-house-prices-rising-aside-temporary-blip-London-says-think-tank.html

[-Talbot-]

If this prediction is worth very little then the pre referendum predictions were worth very little?

I assume you didn't post about any predictions for post Brexit Britain, Jim?

[naomi24]

I don't think that gloomy little raincloud of permanent pessimism hovering above Jim's head will ever disperse.

[jim360]

I'm not aware of having posted any economic predictions. You can check my record for yourself, and if you find that I'm wrong then fair enough. So far as I remember, though, the only prediction I made was of medium-term uncertainty, which could obviously go either way. I was far more concerned about what a Brexit vote would mean for attitudes and the direction we are taking -- away from the world, rather than towards it.

It's not unreasonable for you to try and poke holes but I think you'll find that there is no hole here and I'm being entirely consistent with my positions pre-referendum.

[jim360]

And in response to Naomi: at least wait until after we actually know what leaving the EU will mean. Pessimism until then is entirely reasonable, if nothing else because being aware of what could go wrong makes it easier to avoid it.

[jim360]

Funnily enough, even the report is more than a little pessimistic. Buried at the end is the admission that

//The CEBR however warned Britain's economic performance could be derailed by a number of major political risks - such as the breakup of the United Kingdom and an exit from the European Union.

They noted that a "Brexit" would "prove at best disruptive and at worst lead to a more insular and less diverse culture which in turn would generate slower growth".

Britain's uneven economic performance - where growth has been concentrated in booming London - and weak exports, are also risks to prosperity over the next 15 years, said the report. //

So... yeah. Torygraph spin much?

[jim360]

In fact, the more I read about it, this is amazing. This report and article were published in 2015, when Brexit wasn't even expected to happen. *All* of the predictions in this article were conditional on Brexit not happening, and are thus now null and void.

What a dishonest post, TTT. The CEBR were also warning about Brexit and argued in their report that it would damage the economic future of the UK. So they too are part of the "Project Fear brigade".

Perhaps you should have read the article before posting, TTT?

[bazwillrun]

"at least wait until after we actually know what leaving the EU will mean."

there are some things we know...
we will regain control of our country, our sovereignty, our laws, our military (our nukes) etc etc etc etc.

[ToraToraTora]

it's amazing the lengths some will go to denigrate isn't it.

[bazwillrun]

"and less diverse culture "

like its not diverse enough already...diversity is ripping our country apart...

[bazwillrun]

I hear Hyde Park is nice this time of year, and then after your rio...visit free MaccyD's..

[jim360]

Yeah, such as pointing out that a report cited as demonstrating that project fear over Brexit was wrong a) predated Brexit and b) warned that Brexit would damage the strength of the economic forecast... I completely apologise for ensuring that this post is factually accurate.

[KARL]

Quite simply, projections on past data are at best intelligent guesswork. Anyone on that basis celebrating (and maybe preparing for) a time of milk and honey for years to come (maybe throughout a lifetime) is disingenuous or (actually more forgivably) fails to understand the data's worth - although political expediency is probably the most likely explanation.

[Khandro]

I enjoy reading all the good, positive news since the referendum, in the Daily Express
http://www.express.co.uk/