A Test For The Brexit Party

[Gromit]

Can they overturn a 8,038 majority?

// A by-election will be held in Brecon and Radnorshire after 10,005 people signed a petition to remove the constituency's Conservative MP, Chris Davies. //

[shoota]

What's he done then?
Hustled a protestor?

[Jackdaw33]

False expense claims.

[Gromit]

5,000 names were needed to remove him. The petition got 10,000. So he is removed.
In similar circumstances, Labour changed their candidate and scraped a win. Whether the Tories let him stand again or select someone else may influence the result.

[mushroom25]

//Labour changed their candidate //

um, didn't they tear up her membership card?

[Paigntonian]

Support for the Brexit Party will wane when Johnson becomes Tory leader and says we're leaving by Oct 31.

[youngmafbog]

Are there any postal votes?

[dannyk13]

ymb, if you mean for the leadership election, they are all postal votes.

[dannyk13]

Oops, sorry, just realised post is about a by-election.,

[ludwig]

They were tested in Peterborough, and didn't win, which was surprising. If they didn't win there they'd seem to have no chance here, but nothing's predicable these days.

[agchristie]

//Can they overturn a 8,038 majority? //

Most certainly but they have to face similar problems as in Peterborough.

The disadvantage of having enough facts and figures and whether local issues will matter most.

[dannyk13]

As the MP being replaced was a Conservative I think people will be more inclined to vote for the Brexit party rather than Labour.

[ludwig]

// As the MP being replaced was a Conservative I think people will be more inclined to vote for the Brexit party rather than Labour. //

I don't think they have a problem with him being a Conservative though, it's more that he allegedly cheats on his expenses claims. They'll probably be happy to vote for some other Conservative.

[dannyk13]

ludwig, do we know if the Conservatives are fielding a candidate, if they are then I agree with you.

[agchristie]

With all the controversy surrounding the legitimacy of the Peterborough result, I would be inclined to disregard the importance of it.

It will be interesting to see the outcome of this result but I think the Brexit party would struggle to overturn a margin of 8k plus anywhere.

[ludwig]

// ludwig, do we know if the Conservatives are fielding a candidate //

They must be. They wouldn't just wave goodbye to a seat with a 10,000 majority.

[New Judge]

//Support for the Brexit Party will wane when Johnson becomes Tory leader and says we're leaving by Oct 31.//

You think so? Mrs May said we would leave by March 29th and again by April 11th (IIRC). Voters may not be so gullible this time and since Mr Johnson (or indeed anybody else) has about as much chance of taking us out of the EU by Halloween as Mrs May might have had, they may think a change is necessary.

//They were tested in Peterborough, and didn't win..//

No they didn’t. And there are currently investigations going on into five allegations of voting fraud.

[dannyk13]

AG, If that particular electorate are disillusioned with the Conservatives regarding Brexit the anything can happen.

[agchristie]

Very much so Danny. There are so many variables involved and some areas will place more emphasis on the Brexit issue than others.

[New Judge]

It is estimated (and it can only be an estimate because the result for that particular constituency was not published) that Brecon and Radnorshire voted 51.8% to leave. Those voters will probably be more concerned with leaving the EU properly than worrying about supporting one of the "traditional" parties, especially the Conservatives.

[agchristie]

//Those voters will probably be more concerned with leaving the EU properly //

Or, as in Peterborough, the issues locally.

Promises of more funding for schools, health, etc

A message of hope even!!