This morning's paper (I won't say which one) reported a story of some lucky chap winning the lottery (5 numbers and bonus ball) twice. Apparently the odds of getting 5 numbers and the bonus ball are 2,330,636 to one, the paper therefore concluded that the odds of it happening twice with the same numbers are 5,400,000,000,000 to one (2,330,636 squared) but surely the chances of it happening the second time are the same as the first time the same as rolling two consecutive sixes on a dice. Am I wrong?
I also read the story and was very confused... one paper said it was 5 trillion to one odds, and another said it was only 9 billion to one. Surely someone needs to look at their maths.
The chances of winning the second time are the same as the chances of winning the first time, however the chances of winning both times is indeed the probability of one occurrence squared.