Play Off Semi Finals - Punt Number 1

[Ken4155]

Tonight sees the first leg of the championship play off matches, the first of which involves Bournemouth and Brentford. Their end of season form couldn't be much more different; The Cherries lost their last 3 matches of the regular season, while The Bees come into this game on a high following a 12 match unbeaten run (including 7 clean sheets). However, their record in play-offs is an unenviable one - since the 1990-91 season, Brentford have lost in all eight of their play-off campaigns.
Tonight's match will most likely be a nervous, tension-filled affair, with neither side giving an inch, and, while i have already nailed my flag to Brentford's mast, i cannot separate the two in this first leg. Neither can the bookies, both are around the 7/4 mark to win, with the draw at just over 2/1. So i'm looking elsewhere for a punt and i'm more than a little hopeful on this one;

One player who will definitely be 'up for it' is Brentford's Ivan Toney. Not only is he the Championship Golden Boot winner but, with 31 goals, he set a new record for goal-scoring in that league. Brought in to fill the seemingly unfillable boots of Olly Watkins, he will be relishing the challenge ahead of him. SkyBet are offering 8/1 that he has 3 or more shots on target in tonight's match. I believe that's a bit of value and i have bet accordingly with a portion of my stake covered by a £5 free bet.

[Ken4155]

With around 15 mins of the game left, there have been just 3 shots on target in total, and none of those were by my man. He did have a chance in the first few minutes but the ball bounced harmlessly off his chest to the keeper. He then took a bit of a knock just before half time and has hardly been in the game since then :-(
However, undeterred, my 2nd punt is a fiver on Cauley Woodrow @ 11/2 to score the first goal in the Barnsley v Swansea match.

[Ken4155]

Having lots and lots of luck so far with the play-offs. Trouble is, it's all been bad luck :-( Don't think Woodrow registered a clear shot on target.
Tonight's first match ought to be like all the rest - tense, nervy and hopefully edgy. I say hopefully edgy, because tonight's bet is reliant on two uncompromising midfielders landing themselves in the referees notebook.

£5 @ 8/1 both Brannagan (Ox) and Dougall (Bl) get booked.

[Ken4155]

Punt number 4; With Oxford 3-0 down and seemingly out, it is terribly difficult to predict a score-line. If the Tangerines get an early goal, the U's heads will drop and Blackpool could repeat the score of the first leg. However, if Oxford get an early goal, it may unsettle Blackpool and we will have 'game on'. I am hoping for the latter as it would make my bet more likely to succeed than the first scenario;

Both teams to score, both teams to win over 3 corners, both teams to have more than one player carded. £5 @ 8/1.

[Ken4155]

Despite scoring 3 in a thrilling match, Oxford could only muster 2 corners, so the bet failed :-(

Brentford v Bournemouth; £5 on over 2 goals, over 3 cards and over 10 corners @ 13/2.

[Ken4155]

I need 5 more corners in just over 19 mins :-((

[Ken4155]

And i only got 3 more :-(

Sunderland are 2-0 down to Lincoln and i expect a feisty encounter in the second leg. there were 2 goals, 10 corners and 3 cards in that first leg so i've gone for the exact same bet as i did earlier.

£5 Over 2 goals, over 3 cards, over 10 corners @ 7/1.

[Ken4155]

Also used a £2 free bet on Charlie Wyke (Sunderland) FGS @ 7/2

[Ken4155]

30 minutes to play - need i more corner, 2 more cards. Fingers, toes and eyes crossed.

[Ken4155]

About 10 mins left and one more card needed.

[Ken4155]

3 goals, 13 corners and 4 cards. Thankyou very much, bout time one of my main bets obliged :-))

[Ken4155]

Honestly don't know what to expect from the Swansea v Barnsley game, but if Ayew scores anytime, i have another £30 in my pocket - £2 on Ayew, Wycke and Toney all to score @ 14s.
I do think Swansea will take full advantage of having some of their home crowd cheering them on and i expect them to qualify to meet Brentford at Wembley.

£5 both Hourihane and Lowe to have at least one SOT @ 4/1.

[Ken4155]

^
Don't think either managed a shot in anger :-(
Morecambe host Tranmere in the 2nd leg, today (12.30), the first leg having finished 2-1 in the Shrimps favour. That match produced 3 goals, 6 yellow cards and 14 corners which, given that first legs are usually the more sedate of the two, augurs well for my bet;

£5 @ 7/1 - over 2 goals, over 3 cards, over 10 corners.

[Ken4155]

1 card, 1 goal short of a decent bet.
Can't really get an angle into the FV Green v Newport match so i've gone for something that may happen (without any statistical support) at a very reasonable price;

£5 both Jamie Matt (FG) and Lewis Collins (New) to have more than one shot each on target @ 10/1.