Supervolcanoes

[Lorcan]

Are the scientific-minded here worried about these?

[sddsddean]

Even if you are worried, there is not a lot you can do about it!

[brachiopod]

No.

[bernardo]

No.  The Yellowstone Park supervolcano erupted 2.1 million years ago, 1.3 million years ago and 0.64 million years ago.  That means intervals of 800,000 years and 660,000 years.  It is often said that the intervals are once every 600,000 years (and that the current interval of 640,000 years is "therefore" overdue), but the next eruption might not happen until 800,00 years have elapsed.  So the next eruption is likely to happen some time within the next 200,000 years or so.  In other words, there is a 1-in-4000 chance of it happening in my lifetime, which is approximately 20 times less likely than being killed in a road accident, or 4 times less likely than being murdered.  Therefore no.

[brachiopod]

Spot on, bernardo, (as ever).

Within the last five to ten years, these potentially cataclysmic events have been the mainstay of Channel 5 style 'documentaries' portrayed as if they are an imminent risk, and giving the impression that an occurrence is much more likely now (say 1990's / 2000's) than it was in the 1970's.

The reality being that if Tutankhamun had watched this kind of programme then, the probability of such an event occurring in his lifetime (meteoric strike / 'supervolcano' / 'mega earthquake' etc.etc.) would be the same as for us now, such is the scale of geological time.

[joe6060]

super volcanoes, mega tsunamis, earthquakes, global warming, wmd, killer bees, communists... were all doomed!