News5 mins ago
Covid19 Death Rates Of 0.05% To 0.1%
Do the death rates of 0.05% and lower, to highs of 0.1% depending on the area, do they really warrant the draconian measures imposed upon the population of many countries.
Further to that, from my personal experience, which is a small town, although restrictions were imposed, it seemed as busy as any time when out and about in shops etc. yet no one in the area got the disease and the death rate is zero in the larger area.
That follows in line with the 0.05% and lower death rates worldwide.
Further to that, from my personal experience, which is a small town, although restrictions were imposed, it seemed as busy as any time when out and about in shops etc. yet no one in the area got the disease and the death rate is zero in the larger area.
That follows in line with the 0.05% and lower death rates worldwide.
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// Nobody knows. I don't think the lockdown policy was a rip roaring success. //
Perhaps not, although arguably that it because it came all too late, for the care homes at least that have seen some of the worst damage.
As for the "cure worse than the disease", there's simply no easy way of evaluating that without playing out the alternative history of no (government) response at all. The most obvious case might be Brazil, which is going to overtake the UK some point next week in terms of total death toll, partly because Bolsonaro has put forward more or less the same arguments we've seen again and again here: "it's just a little flu", "can't let cure be worse than disease", etc.
In terms of total cases Brazil has a long way to go to catch up with/overtake the UK, but there's no sign of slowing down. Indeed the death rate is still increasing, making predictions about when it will turn around and what the total death rate will end up being very difficult. One fit to the current data supports a total death rate of around 150,000-200,000, conditional on the peak being reached in the next couple of weeks, and I can only hope that's a wild exaggeration.
Perhaps not, although arguably that it because it came all too late, for the care homes at least that have seen some of the worst damage.
As for the "cure worse than the disease", there's simply no easy way of evaluating that without playing out the alternative history of no (government) response at all. The most obvious case might be Brazil, which is going to overtake the UK some point next week in terms of total death toll, partly because Bolsonaro has put forward more or less the same arguments we've seen again and again here: "it's just a little flu", "can't let cure be worse than disease", etc.
In terms of total cases Brazil has a long way to go to catch up with/overtake the UK, but there's no sign of slowing down. Indeed the death rate is still increasing, making predictions about when it will turn around and what the total death rate will end up being very difficult. One fit to the current data supports a total death rate of around 150,000-200,000, conditional on the peak being reached in the next couple of weeks, and I can only hope that's a wild exaggeration.
And, as I say, that's conditional on deaths peaking in around a fortnight. Push the peak later and it would be up to 250k deaths recorded, and you have to count on top of that all of the deaths that are missed in the official count but will be seen in excess mortality figures later.
No country should be looking to emulate the UK's Covid toll anyway.
No country should be looking to emulate the UK's Covid toll anyway.
//I should clarify that this is my own fit, so I'm flattered that you're taking it so seriously.//
I'm simply commenting on the prediction, Jim. I've no idea where it came from or how it was calculated. I don't take too many predictions about Covid very seriously. Now if you're talking of predictions about the UK economy, I may be more receptive.
I'm simply commenting on the prediction, Jim. I've no idea where it came from or how it was calculated. I don't take too many predictions about Covid very seriously. Now if you're talking of predictions about the UK economy, I may be more receptive.
I'd be happy to clarify how it was calculated, in case you weren't interested. Why you'd prefer to take economic predictions more seriously when those are, if anything, even harder to make is anybody's guess.
But anyhow. The question of whether the response to Covid-19 was appropriate or not is difficult, partly due to hindsight. How reasonable was it to respond aggressively to a disease that was new and was at least sometimes fatal? How many people are you prepared to allow to die, so to speak, in order to assess this? Was a Universal lockdown ever the right response? Maybe Governments did panic a bit and a more level-headed response would have seen an immediate effort to isolate Care Homes. But my own feeling is that this is a no-win scenario for any Government. Either risk a lot of people dying rapidly or take an economic hit that you hope to recover from.
But anyhow. The question of whether the response to Covid-19 was appropriate or not is difficult, partly due to hindsight. How reasonable was it to respond aggressively to a disease that was new and was at least sometimes fatal? How many people are you prepared to allow to die, so to speak, in order to assess this? Was a Universal lockdown ever the right response? Maybe Governments did panic a bit and a more level-headed response would have seen an immediate effort to isolate Care Homes. But my own feeling is that this is a no-win scenario for any Government. Either risk a lot of people dying rapidly or take an economic hit that you hope to recover from.
I'm annoyed in the sense that I'm an ordinary Joe soap and not a scientist or an official in any capacity. But at the same time I was able to look at the stats coming from China which showed a very low number of deaths, and the stats coming from Italy which showed isolated clusters of deaths affecting mainly old people who lived in a smoggy environment. Reading between those lines someone should have been able to make the call for less serious measures.
PPE was held back unnecessarily from those in need, in nursing homes etc just in case, but the data showed very early on that mainly, only old and/or sick people were affected. Not your average Joe in the street.
If this disease was very serious and very contagious there would be a lot more deaths than 1 in 15,000.
PPE was held back unnecessarily from those in need, in nursing homes etc just in case, but the data showed very early on that mainly, only old and/or sick people were affected. Not your average Joe in the street.
If this disease was very serious and very contagious there would be a lot more deaths than 1 in 15,000.
// Fiction, I was allowing for another 100,000 deaths, which probably won't happen. //
Why not? At the moment the world is adding officially around 5,000 deaths per day, so by the end of the month alone, at the current rate, we should see more than half a million deaths. Plus, the official count is if anything an underestimate. Firstly, there are some countries who we can, sadly, safely assume are straight-up lying about their death count: North Korea, China, Iran and Russia being the most obvious.
Secondly, the way in which deaths are counted varies across nations. Russian statistics, in as much as they are honest, are based purely on autopsy results, rather than on deaths among those who tested positive and had Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate. In the UK, the criteria for making the official death toll has changed at least twice: initially it only included deaths in hospitals among positive cases, then expanded to include deaths in care homes, and then earlier this month expanded to include deaths among those who tested positive where the test was carried out by a private company (as opposed to an NHS test). And even *that* is likely to be an undercount, because the the ONS has recorded at least another 10,000 deaths in all settings where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate (1). This is not to criticise the UK's statistics, because it's the same in many other places. Spain has reported 27,000 deaths, but required a positive test in order to count the death, and so there's maybe as many as a further 16,000 deaths that should be added to the official toll (2).
Thirdly, it may be that the country simply doesn't have the testing capacity to track Covid-related deaths accurately, so undercounts by accident rather than design. This is likely to be true in Latin American countries.
All told, we probably breezed past 500,000 Covid-19 deaths already some time in early May, and when the final count comes in I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a death toll in the millions.
And, finally -- and again, I cannot stress this enough -- not everybody on the planet has had Covid-19 yet. It's meaningless to take the entire human population as your denominator in assessing risks. It's almost certainly true that more people have contracted the CoronaVirus than there are confirmed cases, but that isn't the same thing. In the UK it's estimated that somewhere around 10%-20% of the population has had the virus at one point or another (possibly an underestimate), which leaves around 5/6 of the population as yet untouched. The disease still hasn't really taken hold yet in Africa, where they haven't yet recorded more than 200 deaths in a day across the continent; it's only just starting to take off in India (3); the situation in Brazil is probably yet to peak (4). There are many more people yet to be infected, and many more people, sadly, who are going to die before this is over.
(1) https:/
(2) https:/
(3) https:/
(4) https:/
Why not? At the moment the world is adding officially around 5,000 deaths per day, so by the end of the month alone, at the current rate, we should see more than half a million deaths. Plus, the official count is if anything an underestimate. Firstly, there are some countries who we can, sadly, safely assume are straight-up lying about their death count: North Korea, China, Iran and Russia being the most obvious.
Secondly, the way in which deaths are counted varies across nations. Russian statistics, in as much as they are honest, are based purely on autopsy results, rather than on deaths among those who tested positive and had Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate. In the UK, the criteria for making the official death toll has changed at least twice: initially it only included deaths in hospitals among positive cases, then expanded to include deaths in care homes, and then earlier this month expanded to include deaths among those who tested positive where the test was carried out by a private company (as opposed to an NHS test). And even *that* is likely to be an undercount, because the the ONS has recorded at least another 10,000 deaths in all settings where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate (1). This is not to criticise the UK's statistics, because it's the same in many other places. Spain has reported 27,000 deaths, but required a positive test in order to count the death, and so there's maybe as many as a further 16,000 deaths that should be added to the official toll (2).
Thirdly, it may be that the country simply doesn't have the testing capacity to track Covid-related deaths accurately, so undercounts by accident rather than design. This is likely to be true in Latin American countries.
All told, we probably breezed past 500,000 Covid-19 deaths already some time in early May, and when the final count comes in I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a death toll in the millions.
And, finally -- and again, I cannot stress this enough -- not everybody on the planet has had Covid-19 yet. It's meaningless to take the entire human population as your denominator in assessing risks. It's almost certainly true that more people have contracted the CoronaVirus than there are confirmed cases, but that isn't the same thing. In the UK it's estimated that somewhere around 10%-20% of the population has had the virus at one point or another (possibly an underestimate), which leaves around 5/6 of the population as yet untouched. The disease still hasn't really taken hold yet in Africa, where they haven't yet recorded more than 200 deaths in a day across the continent; it's only just starting to take off in India (3); the situation in Brazil is probably yet to peak (4). There are many more people yet to be infected, and many more people, sadly, who are going to die before this is over.
(1) https:/
(2) https:/
(3) https:/
(4) https:/
Thanks jim. I couldn't face setting out the details so I'm grateful to you. Basically the 7.5 billion population figure is pretty accurate figure and won't change much. The global deaths figure has not stopped increasing and will shoot up when it really hits Africa and India, and the published figures are not complete nor reliable as jim has explained.
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