Stephen Hawking: mankind must move to outer space within a century

[naomi24]

Do you think it will ever happen - even if not within a century?

http://www.telegraph....within-a-century.html

[LazyGun]

I would share his concern over the long term sustainability of the ever growing billions of humans on the planet and the inevitable depletion of ever scarcer resources, climate change etc, or even a collision with a decent sized Near Eartth Object. Looked at from a universal perspective, humanity could be viewed as clinging precariously to a single favourable niche, living on the skin of just one planet.

Technologically speaking though, I find it difficult to envisage humanity making the required substantive breakthroughs in some of the technological knowledge and application "ceilings" that we are currently facing.

Without FTL, the idea of colonising planets outside of our own solar system looks unattainable. Maybe some very sophisticated generational or colony ships, using breakthrough cloning / DNA / suspended animation technologies could work, but in all those fields we are so far away from what would be needed that I have my doubts we could conquer those challenges within 100 years.
Failing that, we could colonise within the solar system - but none of the possible targets (Mars,Moon) represent credible opportunities for either long term sustainability or mass emigration.

So - someday maybe - but not within 100 years, and we would be better served trying to figure out how to ensure that humanity is sustainable on Earth over the next century ;)

[R1Geezer]

I think the good professor is suggesting that unless we control the population we may have to look at further space exploration. However another solution is taking measures now, worldwide to prevent population growth. Harsh measures would be necessary and I'm not sure we would ever get agreements across the globe. Still too many obstacles to birth control. I can't see us colonising anything in space in 100, possibly 1000. It's hard to see what we could colonise though, it'd take 50000 years to get to our next door neighbour, there my be solar system solutons but those risk taking huge Earth resources and would be counter productive. Titan is a possiblity but that would be harsh living ti utilise the cast Methan energy. Interesing.....

[Count-A-Strong]

Surely with some countries such as Australia which only has a pop of 20 million, technology would be better aimed at making the hinterland more habitable or at least fertile.

[rov1200]

Turning the question on its head if you go back 100 years then what we are able to do today would be regarded as miraculous. As technolgy is increasing at an exponential rate since then projected into the future many of the things semmingly impossible would be in our reach.

The few factors that make space travel possible will revolve around the speed of the spaceship and the means of survival in outer space. These will both be overcome in the next 100 years.

[wildwood]

I am pretty certain that Mankind will never live outside of Earth as an alternative. We could probably house a couple of dozen people in artificial surroundings on another planet but to grow food on another planet there needs to be an ecosystem similar to Earth, not just the breathable air. Oceans to provide rain and weather to grow the food are essential and impossible to replicate on a grand scale needed for billions of people.

We frequently over-estimate our own ability to develop the knowledge to live somewhere other than our own planet. Even if we were to acquire the knowledge to somehow travel at an astonishing speed, the logistics of shifting millions of people with a turnaround time of each trip being at least 8+ years is not feasible. Even with dehydrated food, carrying water for a 4+year trip would seriously restrict the amount of people the ship could carry.

[nohorn]

I am glad Hawking keeps talking about the obvious end of the human race. I think it is only a matter of time. Think how many other species have gone belly-up. We are only a blip in the universe and will meet our demise by one or a combination of causes. It really is a grim outlook. I am glad I don't have any heirs. Sorry to be so pessimistic about our future.

[RATTER15]

I think it will happen but certainly not within the next few hundred years, travelling at anywhere near the speed of light is still a thing of fantasy.

[naomi24]

Terraforming is not beyond the realms of possibility but it would be a very long process. We might colonise other worlds at sometime in the future, but I can't see us moving anywhere within the next 100 years so I think we need to look closer to home for a solution to our problems.

[chakka35]

Interesting, isn't it, that a fairly ordinary thought that countless people must have had and expressed before suddenly becomes news just because Stephen Hawking said it?

[naomi24]

Maybe that's because all those fairly ordinary thoughts aren't published Chakka. Just a thought.

[Sqad]

chakka....interesting? not really as in most aspects of life, it is not what you say, but who you are.

[chakka35]

I dunno, naomi. I reckon that quite a few science fiction writers have explored such ideas.

You are absolutely right, sqad. The number of mind-blowing thoughts I have graced AB with over the years have gone unacclaimed because people don't know who I am. (Well, naomi does, which I why, I expect, she is never impressed either.

[dotty.]

he's given manking 2 years to locate another planet that could sustain human life because in 1000 years we'll be extinct, he's calculated that it will take 100s of years to travel there and so we need to find where it is going to be over the next 200 years. that's why barrack obama has also allowed the US to spend billions on developing a ship that can land on an asteroid as we would only have 2 years to iimpact if one more than a few Kms big was he3ading our way, the idea then being possibly a nomadic human race coulod leapfrog acroos the universe over generations to fi8nd a p0lanet we can live on , no idea if thats all correct but my grandson told me all that just now.

[naomi24]

Not so Chakka. You know I'm always impressed by your mind blowing thoughts - well most of the time. ;o)

Well remembered Dot, and well done your grandson. Two years? Flipping heck!! We're going to have to go some!!

[roger]

Isaac Asimov suggested a solution for this many years ago - an artificial environment capable of supporting a large community while travelling at sub light speeds for several generations. Robert Heinlein used it as a theme for one of his sci-fi novels as well. Can't quote references as I read them many years ago.

[flobadob]

We'll turn into mars at some point.