Cameron Gets Tough On Russian Oligarchs

[Gromit]

Or does he?

Cameron is urging the EU to put sanctions on Russian oligarchs such as Roman Abramovich in reprisal for their support of Putin's annexation of Crimera. Except he hasn't decided if the UK will put any sanctions on them, he is waiting for a fanacial assessment which will probably take several months.

// Treasury has begun work to estimate the cost of financial sanctions against Russia that could cost the British economy "billions, billions and billions with huge reputational costs for the City //

Is Cameron just full of hot air?
Is he making the right noises to please the Americans but no sanctions will ever be levied?
Or does Abramovich need to start searching for a new home and Chelsea a new owner?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10714756/Ukraine-crisis-I-wont-rule-out-sanctions-against-Roman-Abramovich-says-David-Cameron.html

[jno]

what would be the on-field outcome if Chelsea were frozen? Would they have to wear Damart while playing? Or would he just move them offshore to Grand Cayman?

[DrFilth]

> Russian oligarchs could face asset freezes, <

the only ones that will freeze will be the working class and those on benefits that can't afford the gas prices to keep warm

[LazyGun]

This is the downside of having an economically interconnected world. I cannot imagine any nation in and around europe being able to impose sanctions tough enough to seriously inconvenience the Russians, without suffering serious financial consequences themselves. Add to that the fear that were the reprisals actually hurting the russians, they could just cut off the oil and gas, and it seems to me they are pretty much immune to anything except a token slap on the wrist.

[naomi24]

^^ Agreed.

[Gromit]

Spot on LazyGun.

[ichkeria]

Cutting off the oil and gas isn't really a serious threat. As I said before Russia needs to sell its energy to generate revenue: no sale no money. They can of course make losts of threatening noises, and in theory they could use scare tactics but the the threat to them is long term: they will see the EU moving away from dependency on their gas and that will eventually hurt.

Two things would really help: the freezing of all the Kremlin dirty money that feeds a large part of the false economy the west relies on: it would cause pain but it would be worth it in the long run - for everyone.

And the freeing of US oil reserves to export. That would be potentially devastating.

Some of the measure taken by the US in particular are more effective than the may look at first sight: halting Bank Rossiya (which is little more than an international money laundering operation in its tracks) for example,

Putin and co will be more nervous than they're letting on. Putin is playing the latter-day Nicholas I at present, and in that sort of mood you can grin and joke all you like but the smile - along with the assets - may just freeze.

Not sure Abramovic in particular is deemed close enough to the Kremlin inner circle to be targeted individually, but of course he ought to be affected by any general asset freeze

[jomifl]

It's the old unintended consequences again, having an economically interdependant world means no-one can afford the consequences of war but on the other hand no-one can afford the consequences of sanctions against a nasty little brute like Putin. If Britain had more nuclear power it wouldn't be so dependant on the likes of Putin and it would have enough independance to boycott Russian gas. That is the unintended consequence of a 'green' non-nuclear power policy, more green house gasses and petty despots chucking their weight around, what next?

[Gromit]

Jomifl

The majority of UK imported gas supply comes from Norway. We import some from the European Gas Network at times of high demand. We could easily cope without any Russian gas.

[DrFilth]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9bca0ece-b018-11e3-b0d0-00144feab7de.html#axzz2wggQrzmv

[DrFilth]

don't think my link is working you should see

> In January 2009, eastern Europe slipped back two centuries. For an icy fortnight, people reverted to foraging for wood to heat their homes. ...

[DrFilth]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-03/u-k-gas-has-biggest-gain-since-oct-2011-amid-ukraine-tension.html

[Gromit]

Less than 40% of Europe's gas comes from Russia. It would be possible to increase capacity from southern Europe from Azerbajan and Turkey. A pipeline from Iraqi to Baku is currently being built which will diversify Europe's supply further.

[Gromit]

Correction:

The Iraq- Azerbajan pipeline isn't yet under construction, but is likely to happen.

http://asbarez.com/119399/baku-offers-iraq-access-to-european-pipelines/

[DrFilth]

still got at least one box of candles from the seventies saved -)

[LazyGun]

Not going to quibble. Whether europes fear of the russians cutting off the energy resources ( and remember it is both gas and oil, not gas alone) is a rational or irrational, the fact remains that the fear is there, and underpins the rather more mundane considerations of possible job losses, the loss of markets and sales, not to mention the huge amount of russian funds sloshing about in the various finance sectors, but particularly in the UK.

Seeking alternative sources of supply makes very good sense, but until the infrastructure supporting those alternative sources of supply are available, europes ability to do sever or halt these economic links and dependency upon resources is limited, and I do not think there is the political will within europe to do anything that robust over Crimea.

[ichkeria]

It isn't really about Crimea any more (sadly), it's about what happens next.