Blair to become Middle East envoy?

[kwicky]

With the backing of Geo Bush Tony Blair is expected to become the Middle East Envoy in trying to solve the Israeli Palestine problem and report to the quartet which includes Russia. the EU and USA. Is this a sensible position for him to take up knowing his disaster in siding up to Bush in the Iraq war? Therefore how can he be truly independent on this matter as he would just appear a representative spokesman for the USA against the wishes of the other representatives? Would he therefore just be regarded as a US envoy?

[Gromit]

Apparently he has the support of both Israel and the Fatah leadership so that is encouraging. However, Russia's agreement is needed, and relations between Blair and Putin are not good and could scupper the plan.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,,2108 848,00.html

[kwicky]

I cannot see Russia agreeing to his appointment. For someone to take over this responsibility they would need to be even handed that would satisfy Hamas and also countries such as Iran, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Russia is trying to create a level playing field by listening to Hamas wheras the likes of Blair only wants to crush the dissidents not involve them in the peace process.
Blair has been sold a pup. The US with Condi Rice have been trying for months for a peaceful solution so by putting the onus on Blair to come up with a solution is fanciful. He is too closely allied to Bush to create a solution. Maybe what is required is the selection of a Kissinger or Jimmy Carter.

[Kathyan]

To be honest, I wish he would disappear into the back of beyond, never to be seen again!

[Gromit]

I think Blair is very well suited to this job and I cannot think of anyone better. He is neither a Jew or Muslim so would be seen as neutral in a religious sense. He is very experienced on the world stage and is statesmanlike. He has the Americans ear, and there will be no agreement which the US cannot buy into. He has a proven record in Northern ireland and has the staying power that this job needs. And I think he wants it to happen, who knows, this could end up being Blairs elusive legacy. And apparently the Russians have accepted him so it will happen.

[jno]

Blair's concern for Middle East peace is genuine; he's been talking for years about how the Israel-Palestinian conflict is the key to it. Unfortunately he has never persuaded the USA that approving everything the Israelis do and pouring money into the country isn't the way to apper impartial. Also, his own name is tarnished by the war in Iraq; the Palestinians will obviously welcome anyone who tries to sort the matter out but in the end they will probably never quite trust him. The Israelis will also welcome him, but only on the basis that he does what they tell him to; they have no interest in compromise and see no place for Palestinians except under their thumb.

[Hugh Spencer]

Whatever you do don't suggest he shouldn't go. Encourage, encourage and encourage again.

[kwicky]

Why do you think the conflict between Israel and Palestine has dragged on for so long? If you have a dominent power in the region ie Israel, it has an even stronger backer with the US, it does not obey UN resolutions, it pretends it does not have nuclear weapons, it steals land from the Palestinians whilst the population are starving and you expect the repressed people to roll over and accept it. To rub salt in the wounds Blair appears on the scene when everyone knows he's a lacky to Bush and the problem gets worse.
Whats needed is a diplomat who can see the problem through the eyes of these repressed people and demand realistic concessions they would be happy to lay down their arms for.

[Gromit]

I think Blair has the staying power that this job needs. The Oslo Accord of 1993 was a fantastic basis to negotiate a lasting peace. Unfortunately elements on either side and in the US who did not want peace were allowed sabotarge the treaty.

Blair has got the experience. He will know when he is being fobbed off and he has the charm to get people to do what is needed.

A greater problem is that the Palestinians are no longer speaking with one voice. Hamas will have to be included or sidelined for any progress to be made.

I also think the time is right. Olmert and Abbas seem like moderates who genuinely want a settlement and a change in the Whitehouse looks probable. Add to that a world player like Blair, and the outlook looks the most optimistic for a long time.

[Gromit]

And there is nothing worse than an ex-Prime Minister with nothing to do. Edward Heath and Margaret Thatcher became bitter, resentful and disruptive to their successors. I bet Gordon Brown is rallying for Blair's appointment as vigorously as anyone.

[NJOK]

Whatever you think about Blair, his greatest achievement was bringing peace to Northern Ireland. It had been a perennial problem that was miles off being resolved.

He simply didn't let up, even when it was close to collapse. It took skill, diplomacy and dogged determination. I'm not saying he did it alone, but he was absolutely instrumental throughout.

Slag the guy off for his other f*ck ups - and there were plenty to slag off! - but I can't think of anyone better qualified to be middle east envoy.

[jno]

no, Gordon Brown is apparently ... well, browned off. His feeling is that the Palestinian state needs to be made financially viable (which it isn't because of Israeli boycotts, border closures etc) and he wants to press for an economic solution to achieve this. Having Blair pushing some other line is likely to muddy the waters unnecessarily and, in effect, make it harder for the (new) UK government to follow its own policy.

[Gromit]

I think bolstering the Westbank/Fatah controlled Palestinian economy will be part of Blair's strategy. Calm the area down, improve peoples lives and stop the corruption, try and release the grip that Israel has on the economy. If the situation does improve, then the people may turn their backs on Hamas and violence. But I am sure that Brown's plan and Blair's strategy will be interlinked.

I know it is a big if but Blair has the opportunity to raise the middle east opinion of him from zero to hero.

[kwicky]

If Brown had any desire to use his new foreign minister in the Middle East it has been cut stone dead as any UK involvement will be upstaged by Blair. Any concessions Blair achieves will now have to be ratified by the White House not by the UK who will be cut from the loop. The problem is Hamas are unlikely to agree to even more pressure from the US/Israeli side for we know Blair's demands may only satsify Fatah. He seems to forget the Ireland solution was achieved by bringing the IRA into the tent, will he do the same for Hamas, I doubt it!