Film, Media & TV1 min ago
The Cheltenham Festival 2021
98 Answers
It will no doubt be strange viewing this year with no crowds being allowed through the gates, but ITV are to include a recording of the famous 'Cheltenham Roar' when the tapes go up for the first race. They have not yet decided whether this will continue throughout the Festival. In my most humble of opinions, i believe they should - it would certainly add to the atmosphere. What say you, fellow punters?
I have been perusing the stats for the opening race, the Supreme Novices, and while the form lines would suggest either Appreciate It (5/4) or Metier (9/2) should win, there are a couple of strong stats that threaten to put me off both. Favourites have won 4 of the last 20 runnings - and none of those was under 3/1 - and horses who began their careers on the flat account for only four placed runs in the last 13 years.
Another strong stat is that only one winner from the last 10 years did not win last time out.
I'm leaning toward the JonJo trained Soaring Glory @ around the 6/1 mark.
I have been perusing the stats for the opening race, the Supreme Novices, and while the form lines would suggest either Appreciate It (5/4) or Metier (9/2) should win, there are a couple of strong stats that threaten to put me off both. Favourites have won 4 of the last 20 runnings - and none of those was under 3/1 - and horses who began their careers on the flat account for only four placed runs in the last 13 years.
Another strong stat is that only one winner from the last 10 years did not win last time out.
I'm leaning toward the JonJo trained Soaring Glory @ around the 6/1 mark.
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Thankfully, Togo, there are some decent stats to help me whittle the large fields down to a more manageable number; such as in the 3.40 where only 4 of the last 24 winners have carried more than 11 stone to victory. Of course, the trouble with that is, if the stats can help knock out nearly half the field of a 23 runner event, i still have to find the winner from the other half:-( Not managed it yet, this week, but yesterday's total return of just under £100 means i am at least hitting the woodwork :-)
Done the same again with the 'popular' tips; Envoi Allen, Imperial Alcazar, Onemorefortheroad,Paisley Park, Farclas & Hook Up, £1 e.w. acca. £35 or £17,780.
ITV 7; Envoi Allen, Champagne Platinum, Fakir D'oudairies, Onemorefortherod, Sire Du Berlais, The Shunter and Royal Kahala. £1 e.w. acca, £54 or £38,135.
Main Bet;
1.55; Champagne Platinum @ 7/1 (7 places)
2.30; Fakir D'oudairies @ 5/1 (5 places)
4.15; Royal Kahala @ 11/2 (5 places)
4.50; Hold The Note @ 15/2 (6 places)
Win singles, 20p L15, £1 e.w. acca. 4 placed = poss £25, 4 winners = poss £3,574.
£1 e.w. singles on the following (all enhanced places with Sky); Storm Arising (16/1), Flooring Porter (12/1), Eamon Cnoic (33/1), Perfect Myth (22/1) & Storm Control (14/1).
A rev f/c in the 2.30; Fakir D'oudairies and Min
And the Placepot; 6-11-4-12-14-13
If any become nr/s, i can always cash out and make another selection or leave the cash where it is.
Best of luck to all - we're gonna need it :-)
Done the same again with the 'popular' tips; Envoi Allen, Imperial Alcazar, Onemorefortheroad,Paisley Park, Farclas & Hook Up, £1 e.w. acca. £35 or £17,780.
ITV 7; Envoi Allen, Champagne Platinum, Fakir D'oudairies, Onemorefortherod, Sire Du Berlais, The Shunter and Royal Kahala. £1 e.w. acca, £54 or £38,135.
Main Bet;
1.55; Champagne Platinum @ 7/1 (7 places)
2.30; Fakir D'oudairies @ 5/1 (5 places)
4.15; Royal Kahala @ 11/2 (5 places)
4.50; Hold The Note @ 15/2 (6 places)
Win singles, 20p L15, £1 e.w. acca. 4 placed = poss £25, 4 winners = poss £3,574.
£1 e.w. singles on the following (all enhanced places with Sky); Storm Arising (16/1), Flooring Porter (12/1), Eamon Cnoic (33/1), Perfect Myth (22/1) & Storm Control (14/1).
A rev f/c in the 2.30; Fakir D'oudairies and Min
And the Placepot; 6-11-4-12-14-13
If any become nr/s, i can always cash out and make another selection or leave the cash where it is.
Best of luck to all - we're gonna need it :-)
A punter stood to win over £500,000 if Envoi Allen wins the first race. He's partially cashed-out at £250,000 but his winnings could be £320,000 if Envoi Allen wins.
A different world to my "punting".
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A very enviable position to be in. Of course, if the fav does the business (and he is 2/2 at the track and unbeaten in his career), there will be those who will call him a mug for cashing out and not having the courage of his initial convictions. I would have done the same - guaranteed £250K for a £5 outlay. What's not to like about that?
^I was wondering what he'd do. See he 'chickened out' and cashed in.
What would you (any of us) have done? I'd have probably done the same. I suppose it depends on your circumstances to a certain extent.
And he only stood to lose a £fiver. ;-)
It was a very strange bet he placed, must be a pro of some sort. He said 1 let him down for £120,000 at last years festival.
What would you (any of us) have done? I'd have probably done the same. I suppose it depends on your circumstances to a certain extent.
And he only stood to lose a £fiver. ;-)
It was a very strange bet he placed, must be a pro of some sort. He said 1 let him down for £120,000 at last years festival.
These are my picks to win my quarter mill. :)) It was hard to leave out some of my favourite horses that have done me proud previously, like Min, Paisley Park, & Potters Hedger. Though I will be doing a little e/w on the latter or I will have a nervous breakdown before the off. ITV7 done, Placepot and Jackpots done, and a little e/w on the most popular ITV7 choices once again. Add Billy Ray to the list below for the Doncaster leg of the ITV7. Have just done the **** 4 horses, for now, in a punt E/W Acca E/W Doubles & Trebles. Can cover t'others as and when it pans out. Will be doing e/w singles anyway. Going for a walk first on the miserable damp and grey prom.
Shan Blue @12/1 1.20Ch
Champagne Platinum* @15/2 1.55Ch
Mister Fisher* @17/2 2.30Ch
The Storyteller* @10/1 3.05Ch (extra place)
A Wave Of The Sea* 11/1 3.40Ch
Gauloise @15/2 4.15Ch (extra place)
Morning Vicar @ 14/1 4.50Ch
Shan Blue @12/1 1.20Ch
Champagne Platinum* @15/2 1.55Ch
Mister Fisher* @17/2 2.30Ch
The Storyteller* @10/1 3.05Ch (extra place)
A Wave Of The Sea* 11/1 3.40Ch
Gauloise @15/2 4.15Ch (extra place)
Morning Vicar @ 14/1 4.50Ch
Don't think he's a pro, Spice. A £5 acca? That's classed as a 'mug's' bet to a professional gambler.
As he only partially cashed out, he still stands to increase his winning by another £72K should Envoi Allen win. The £250K is what he gets should the fav boil.
Spice, where did you read the max payout rule had been waived? Not being an ante-post fan, I always believed this rule is only implemented if the bet is settled on the day?
As he only partially cashed out, he still stands to increase his winning by another £72K should Envoi Allen win. The £250K is what he gets should the fav boil.
Spice, where did you read the max payout rule had been waived? Not being an ante-post fan, I always believed this rule is only implemented if the bet is settled on the day?
