Betting On A Dead Cert

[Hymie]

Personally, I don’t think this should be illegal – if bookmakers are stupid enough to offer odds on something that a person decides the result of, that is their own lookout.

 

It really is no different from bookmakers offering odds on the name of my soon to be son, being named ‘Fred’ – and to my amazement, that is the name my wife and I have decided to call him.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c230pvpdek9o

[newmodarmy]

But a bookmaker wouldn't take odds on that so it is different and so an invalid comparison.

[newmodarmy]

Having said that,  I don't understand why bookmakers took odds on this, or rather why there was a market for their offering.

[Hymie]

Do you think the bookies would have refused a bet on the election date, place by Sunak – and if so why?

[Ken4155]

I'd like to know how much each individual wagered and how much they stood to win. Methinks they're all gonna end up looking a tad stupid risking their careers and good name over a few (hundred?/thousand?) quid.

[Ken4155]

NMA, the bookies will open a book on just about anything they think will attract punters. What they don't expect to happen is  someone with inside knowledge placing bets.

[Hymie]

If you knew the result of a wager, and the bookies were still willing to take bets on the outcome, why would you not place a bet?

 

I can understand the bookies crying foul when someone has fixed the result of some sporting event – but this is different, the result is within the remit of an individual, who might very well place a bet themselves, or let others in on the result.

 

You’d be a fool to accept a wager in the above scenario, knowing that they may very well know the result.

[newmodarmy]

Taking ken's point into account I'm assuming that for whatever reason there must have been thousands of  people placing genuine bets on this to make it worthwhile running a book on this thus making the extent of insider trading bets being relatively small.

There are quite often bets taken on things where some people have insider info.... eg Simon Cowell may already have decided who he'll make sure wins BGT. They take bets on things like great british Bake Off even though it was filmed months earlier so some know the result.

[Ken4155]

Hymie, you're assuming that the 'firm' or 'firms' used by those with inside knowledge knew just who they were and what their connections to Sunak were.

I'm gessing that those who knew the exact date Sunak intended to announce and punted, got a tad greedy and made larger bets than they normally would. This would obviosly set off internal alarms within the betting industry and investigations would follow. Which is what has happened.

Regarding the betting on pre-recorded tv programmes, i'm guessing that very few would be 'in the know' and that they would be sworn to secrecy, perhaps at the risk of some penalty or other.

So if any of those were punting on the programme, bets would be small so as not to attract interest. Bets from ordinary punter would no doubt far outweigh those with connections to the programme or it's contestants.

The winner of the 2022 edition of Bake Off, Syabira Yusoff, was available at 10/1 in the first week of the programme. She had shortened to 6/4 fav by week 2. Yet, going into the final round, Sandro was the fav.

 

[Khandro]

Do we know how much was won? If it had only been a tenner I don't think we would have heard anything about it, so it was presumably a substantial sum.

Very foolish of the bookies to keep a book on such a thing though

[Ken4155]

Perhaps they thought all MPs were honourable gents, Khandro 😂