Covid Deaths Update

[fiction-factory]

The method for counting deaths as Covid in England has been changed to bring it into line with Scotland, so deaths for any reason (eg heart attack, car crash) which occur more than 28 days after a positive test are no longer counted. this has brought the UK death figure down from around 46000 to 41000. It now means that we have moved down the league table of DEATHS PER MILLION population:

1 San Marino 1,238
2 Belgium 854
3 Andorra 686
4 Peru 657
5 Spain 611
6 UK 608
7 Italy 583
8 Sweden 571
9 Chile 533
10 USA 511
11 Brazil 490
12 France 465

The UK figure is still alarmingly high compared to say Germany and Greece but we do have a lower figure than Spain and Belgium and is not too far above Italy. Of course we still can't be sure all countries are counting Covid deaths in exactly the same way but there does seem to be more consistency as time goes on.

It's amazing though how low the figures are for the country where this started- China reports 3 deaths per million compared to our figure of 608. The figures seem low in Eastern Europe and Africa too.

[rowanwitch]

More rural communities less population movement between them, no one to count them in very isolated areas, certainly for parts of Africa we may never have an accurate count.

[ichkeria]

Indeed. Hard to say it’s like for like in many cases.

China being an authoritarian country additionally it is easier for them to impose travel restrictions

[dannyk13]

Comparisons of this sort are a waste of time unless the method used is exactly the same in each country, which it is pretty obvious is not the case.

[fiction-factory]

I think the counting methods are reasonably consistent in the main European countries, for US and Canada and Australia/NZ but I'm not sure about the rest of the world - some are counting differently, some have inadequate recording systems and/or little idea and some are hiding the truth.
Excess deaths may eventually be a better method but i wonder how reliable even that data is from some countries

[Peter Pedant]

FF - you know cantors diagonalisation argument?
you are trying to do that

order a set that has no order
and any order imposed is a nonsense

erm a bit like A level results predicting success in later life or even potential results at uni - - ( joke joke - but so true!)

ordering the country not alphabetically
but by morality so far per head of pop
has no meaning because - - - - vietnam is top( one death in a country of tens of millions)

this is a feel good exercise for Boris
because the NHS doesnt come out well
probably or possibly because of a political decision - to send old patients home without testing
(which I thought acceptable at the time)

[Peter Pedant]

sozza
using a mortality per head as an indirect measure of how good a country's health service is

rather obvious when italy thpain and belgium come out top

ed has specifically asked me to appeal to ABers in words of one syllable and nothing forrin - sacre bleu! - for greater comprehension no doubt in a sullen and doubting readership

[ToraToraTora]

don't worry FF the anti British will be along to spin it!

[Peter Pedant]

even the Beeb fluffy hack commented
that the exercise didnt make any one live again
( sozza 'they were still dead')

[Peter Pedant]

oh for the slower AB readers ( and they are legion)
big number bad - small number good - - is NOT the whole story

IF san marino had 10 000 deaths ( very good ) but if there are only 25000 san mareenans then the mortality is very bad 25% - San Marino is quarter empty and probably a good place to have a holiday ( cheap accommodiation)

so it depends how you look at it

bears repeating

because if you TEST a thousand and find 1
and then test two thousand and find 2
heavens the rate has NOT doubled! eek - as Trump said - it is still one in a thousand and has not changed. ( as Trump doesnt accept)

can't be said enough times

[Peter Pedant]

fsmn 40%

[Peter Pedant]

and if I have insulted you TTT
with reason or no
I am SO sorry - I am - I apologise ( see crazy David Lammy thread )
my jibe about monkeys brain and crickets voice
was unjustified ( even tho based on Alexander Pope)

[Old_Geezer]

The curious bit is Sweden's ability not to be top by a country mile, especially as the virus is believed to thrive in colder climates.

[SparklyKid]

oh for the slower AB readers ( and they are legion)
big number bad - small number good - - is NOT the whole story



Insulting again ??

[bhg481]

Sparkly - I think PP's definition of "Slower AB readers" is anyone who doesn't have a degree in Gobbledygook; I rate myself amongst them.

[SparklyKid]

Glad it isn't just me then.

[SparklyKid]

Ang again.
Avatar Image Peter Pedant


// most of the OAP deaths are with Covid not of it. The Quacks are having a field day.//
no the quacks are not having a field day at the numbers dying. No wonder I insult people like TTT of low intelligence - shame on you! see his pathetic whining complaint on the Lammy thread.

[youngmafbog]

I wish people would stop comparing figures from different countrues, they do count differently even across Europe.

The ONLY way to get to the bottom of this will be in depth analysis which I reckon would take a couple of years. Even using excess deaths is pointless, since a) the change a fair bit year on year and b) excess deaths will include deaths caused by the actions of the Governments due to Covid.

[jno]

what ymb and others have said: the deaths per million this is a useful comparison but not a perfect one. (I'm told the Belgians have been quick to blame everything on Covid, so it may be they belong much lower on the list.)

Overall, I think the excess deaths measure is probably the best because deaths do get recorded everywhere, whatever the attributed cause.

[jim360]

Just to address the point that deaths change year-on-year. This is true, but...

https://imgur.com/a/MQv827X

2020 is not normal.