What is the Butterfly Effect

asks Will Smith:
A. In 1979, an American weather guru, called Edward Lorenz wrote a paper called 'Does the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas ' It described how chaos theory works in predicting the weather. He claimed that something as small as a butterfly's flapping wings could set off a train of events that may lead to a hurricane in another part of the world, hence 'the butterfly effect.'

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Q. What is chaos theory
A. Chaos theory, according to Encarta Dictionary, describes the fact that complex natural systems obey some rules, but they are so sensitive that small changes can cause unexpected results, giving an impression of randomness.

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Q. How does it relate to weather
A. Chaos theory has established the basic limits of the accuracy of weather forecasts. The Earth's atmosphere is so sensitive that if there is the slightest doubt about the current weather conditions, the weather is unpredictable a week or so ahead.

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Q. In other words, weather is hard to predict
A. You got it... just ask Michael Fish. But more recently, scientists have found what they believe to be exceptions to this rule of unpredictability.

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Q. What are they
A. J. Shukla of the George Mason University Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmospheric Studies claims that fluctuations in the earth's climate are much more predictable than had been previously thought.

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Q. Does that mean we could choose sunny days for weddings six months in advance
A. You wish. No, his research shows that actual weather cannot be predicted beyond a few days away, but atmospheric circulation and precipitation - which are averaged for an entire season - are potentially predictable. So ,he can only predict big things like El Nino events and massive hurricanes, I'm afraid.

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Q. Why did Lorenz choose Brazil and Texas
A. Not for any geographical reason. Various locations have been used to describe the butterfly effect. For example, 'A single flap of an insect's wings in Peckham can trigger a hurricane in the Philippines' and 'Can a flap of a butterfly's wing in China cause a hurricane to form over Czechoslovakia '

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Do you have anything to add about the butterfly effect Post your opinion here.

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By Sheena Miller

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