Odds have everything to do with what the bookies see as the actual probability. They weigh up the pros and cons of what may, or may not happen, long before an event and set their prices accordingly; how else are initial markets formed. It is only when punters start weighing in with their hard-earned/ill-gotten that the market fluctuates. And i would suggest that the fact that England have not beaten Spain away since 1968 explains their attractive 9/2 odds of doing so, tonight - the bookies doing what they do best, reeling in the gullible. In fact, counting tonight's match, we haven't registered a single goal on our last 4 visits. Like Svejk, i don't bet on friendlies - quickest way to the poorhouse.