I ended up paying because the council (at a meeting at which I was present) said that anyone choosing other than the nearest school would go into a 'sink' school nearly 10 miles away if they were unsuccessful. It killed us financially, it really did and I scrimp like nobody's business still, but it was worth it.
Best advice I can give is to hang around the various schools at 'school out' time and watch the kids and parents.
The schools don't know the order you put them in (or at least, they didn't).