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Cheaper Oil Again?
With the announcement that all sanctions against Iran have been lifted it is free to sell oil again. In a world that already has a major oversupply of oil it is going to push the price even lower. How low will it go?
Remember Iran was 2nd only to Saudi Arabia in the production of oil ! We are talking many 100,000s of barrels extra production per day.
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Remember Iran was 2nd only to Saudi Arabia in the production of oil ! We are talking many 100,000s of barrels extra production per day.
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Not that simple:
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Back in 1980 when I lived in Saudi Arabia we were pumping 24,000,000 barrels a day and Iran had the capacity to pump at least 15,000,000 a day. Iran is a really big league player in the oil market ,it can out produce every other country in the world apart from Saudi Arabia. The effect of it coming back into production will be huge!
No it won't.
The big change in the last 5 years has been the US becoming self sufficient in oil due to fracking. Demand for Saudi and Iran oil from the West is low. China is the new market, and can take ALL the oversupply, and reap the benefit of cheaper energy. Saudi over production is a desperate measure designed to bankrupt its competitors.
The big change in the last 5 years has been the US becoming self sufficient in oil due to fracking. Demand for Saudi and Iran oil from the West is low. China is the new market, and can take ALL the oversupply, and reap the benefit of cheaper energy. Saudi over production is a desperate measure designed to bankrupt its competitors.
China's growth last year was 7%. China has not had a downturn. It is producing and consuming energy more than ever before. China's growth is not as great as previous years, but an increase of 7% is not a downturn.
The US Government is prepared to help US oil producers rather than be dependent on middle east oil producers. What the US will save in not paying $billions to protect Saudi Arabia will more than compensate US producers for the low price.
The US Government is prepared to help US oil producers rather than be dependent on middle east oil producers. What the US will save in not paying $billions to protect Saudi Arabia will more than compensate US producers for the low price.
ichkeria is just about correct, $10 oil equates to 4 p crude cost, 6p for refining and distribution, 2p for the station plus 2.4p for VAT......74p Excise and Vat and we have 88p/l.
However, things could swing quite dramatically for two reasons - (i) if Iran and Saudi get into a more serious spat that threatens the flow of oil out of the Gulf as 90% of both countries comes out through the Straits of Hormuz and (ii) the lesser OPEC countries are calling for cutting as they are really hurting......in fact Saudi is as well and they are burning up their forex reserves at an alarming rate - down to 3 years equivalent now.
Part of the fall out of this could be the Shell BG Expro tie up - though the Finance Director of Shell was saying that this should still go ahead, $20 buck oil is not going to be around for the life of the project, even if cheap oil at less than 20 would impact of NPVs and RT rates of return.
However, things could swing quite dramatically for two reasons - (i) if Iran and Saudi get into a more serious spat that threatens the flow of oil out of the Gulf as 90% of both countries comes out through the Straits of Hormuz and (ii) the lesser OPEC countries are calling for cutting as they are really hurting......in fact Saudi is as well and they are burning up their forex reserves at an alarming rate - down to 3 years equivalent now.
Part of the fall out of this could be the Shell BG Expro tie up - though the Finance Director of Shell was saying that this should still go ahead, $20 buck oil is not going to be around for the life of the project, even if cheap oil at less than 20 would impact of NPVs and RT rates of return.
All sorts of factors contribute to the fall in oil prices: it's a complex picture.
Chinese slow growth rate definitely IS a factor, but only one.
The bottom line is that supply outstrips demand. There is more oil about than is needed, or more accurately, there are more ways of getting it. A classic example of that is Russia, one country which depends too much for its income on sales of fuel. They can no longer control the market by hiking prices to suit them, for a variety of reasons, and so are seeing a vicious circle of dropping sales and lower prices.
Chinese slow growth rate definitely IS a factor, but only one.
The bottom line is that supply outstrips demand. There is more oil about than is needed, or more accurately, there are more ways of getting it. A classic example of that is Russia, one country which depends too much for its income on sales of fuel. They can no longer control the market by hiking prices to suit them, for a variety of reasons, and so are seeing a vicious circle of dropping sales and lower prices.
The main and overiding factor is the Saudis pumping overtime to try and shaft the USA fracking industry...epic fail....
Iran will add a whole new dimension...the other arabs are even more worried than ever before about irans influence in the middle East specifically...
You aint seen nothing yet....and if anybody thinks theyve curtailed their nuclear weapons amitions/prog then theyre living in cloud cuckoo land...they want to obliterate the rest of the arab world and dominate the region probably as much than if not more than they want to destroy israel...
The lifting of sanctions and the nuclear "deal" hahah, is the worst news for the region and theyve been dreading this day for a long time now...
Iran will add a whole new dimension...the other arabs are even more worried than ever before about irans influence in the middle East specifically...
You aint seen nothing yet....and if anybody thinks theyve curtailed their nuclear weapons amitions/prog then theyre living in cloud cuckoo land...they want to obliterate the rest of the arab world and dominate the region probably as much than if not more than they want to destroy israel...
The lifting of sanctions and the nuclear "deal" hahah, is the worst news for the region and theyve been dreading this day for a long time now...
Mikey 85p a litre is the predicted price. As said there is a production cost of around 10p a litre and 58 p tax plus vat so 85p is just about the lowest possible price.
I can remember when it was 33p a Gallon ! when I was in Saudi it was 17p a gallon !literally cheaper than water.
I had a Triumph Herald with a 6 gallon tank. When the 1973 oil crisis hit petrol stations were charging £2 minimum payment. That was exactly 6 gallons. I had to wait until my car ran out of petrol and switch to the 1/4 gallon reserve tank so that I could actually get the £2 worth of petrol into the tank. More than once I had to push it the last 100 yards or so to the pumps.
I can remember when it was 33p a Gallon ! when I was in Saudi it was 17p a gallon !literally cheaper than water.
I had a Triumph Herald with a 6 gallon tank. When the 1973 oil crisis hit petrol stations were charging £2 minimum payment. That was exactly 6 gallons. I had to wait until my car ran out of petrol and switch to the 1/4 gallon reserve tank so that I could actually get the £2 worth of petrol into the tank. More than once I had to push it the last 100 yards or so to the pumps.
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