Why Post Bretix Would There Be Budget Cuts?

[cassa333]

Surely the money given to the EU would be funnelled and used to pay any shortfall?

If we pay £350m in and get rebates and subsidies of £150m then surely we would be £200m better off? Not counting the other bailouts we have had to pay we would be quids in so why budget cuts and tax hikes?

[Hopkirk]

One of the problems will be that it will take 2 years to leave, during which time we will still be paying full whack, but there may be financial instability in the short term.

It's a price worth paying to get control of our country back though.

Vote Leave.

[jno]

imagine all those foreign workers undercutting Britsh wages are sent packing. That means wages rise. That means manufacturers have to put their prices up or sack staff (and rising prices also imply sales falling and people being sacked anyway). Fewer people paying tax, more on the dole.

In addition you could factor in foreign investment being withdrawn. This is already happening in the wake of the uncertainty (and the uncertainty will not end when the referendum is over). Already German government bonds are offering a negative yield. This means that investors are now paying the German government to store their money rather than keep it in Britain.

How long these effects will last and how deep they will cut is anyone's guess. But it sounds highly probable that Osborne is going to be correct. The whole tangle of economics is much more complex than "I'll be able to keep my money".

[jno]

Hopkirk, I think the short term will be long. The new day will not dawn in two years. My guess is more than a decade.

[Old_Geezer]

Maybe because the government 'remainers' have to try to fool you into thinking our economy has gone into a nosedive in order to justify their excessive warnings and save face.

[Old_Geezer]

No one is suggesting anyone gets sent packing. But if some go then all the more benefit to the UK from getting natives on welfare into work.

UK can not seriously compete on price anyway given the low cost/price countries in the world, it has to compete on quality, extra bells & whistles, and suchlike.

Folk unreasonably worrying about investments, or those hoping for a bear market killing, will eventually settle down. Those who gained will already have bought up UK investments, those who panicked will quickly realise the UK is as valuable after exit as before, and so sheepishly return.

It is the very fact that withdrawal will not be sudden that helps any disruption during the upgrade to be generally small and manageable.

[Svejk]

Careful where you 'store' your money in Europe, jno. Some of their biggest banks, including Deutsche Bank, are teetering on the edge of collapse.

[Peter Pedant]

yeah wiv £350 in one hand and 150 in de other
that means we get £200 immediately

even the brexiters admit that the uncertainty in the short term will be such that there will be a fall in the standard of living and a contraction of 2% in the economy
(but hey then it will magically get better of course)

[jno]

my money's stored somewhere where they actually pay interest, svejk - that wouldn't be Britain.

[Peter Pedant]

// Hopkirk, I think the short term will be long. The new day will not dawn in two years. My guess is more than a decade.//

all this talk of jam tomorrow

I think you are right jno - I just dont want other people to do the experiment on ME ! they can do it on themselves if they want ....

[-Talbot-]

jno
Hopkirk, I think the short term will be long. The new day will not dawn in two years. My guess is more than a decade.


What are your expertise that allow you to to come to this conclusion, jno?


George must have taken a leaf from the EU hierarchy ... do as I/we say or I/we will punish you. This is nothing more than a threat of a vengeance budget

[EDDIE51]

Leaving the EU will cause a recession which will massively outweigh
( by at least 10x) any drop in contributions the the EU. Even 'leave' admit there will be a drop in trade. The Stock market index showed a record drop yesterday just on speculation that a 'Leave' vote was becoming more likely.

[-Talbot-]

Only yesterday
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-14/european-funding-stress-emerges-credit-suisse-deutsche-bank-collapse-record-lows

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1465920240.php

[-Talbot-]

( by at least 10x)


Another expert (unless you have a link EDDIE?)

[jno]

don't be silly, talbot, plenty of people (on both sides) have offered expert opinions, and anyone who doesn't already agree with them immediately denounces them as "taking us for fools". Expertise counts for nothing in this debate. I've given my opinion (what's yours?) and we'll see if I'm right.

[-Talbot-]

I'm being silly?

I wouldn't be so pretentious as to forecast what will happen. The fact is it looks equally risky to stay in the EU as it does to leave.

[Old_Geezer]

I've learnt something today. I had no idea the way investors found good opportunities and made money is by magic. I think I'm off to join the circle and memorise their library.

[EDDIE51]

Talbot , Here is the forecast from the London School Of Economics , not an organisation known for exaggerated claims, post Brexit cost to the GDP of the UK £26 to £55 BILLION !!!! against a 'saving' of £350 million a year
( a billion is a thousand million, work it out)
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf

[Svejk]

/// the London School Of Economics , not an organisation known for exaggerated claims///

Oh, I don't know, Eddie. They said it would be a disaster if we didn't join the Euro.
Could be something to do with the millions of pounds in EU funding they receive. I couldn't possibly say.

[Svejk]