Well, slaney, Mr Wormald said this:
“At our last count there are 62 Spanish … ” “Not 62,000?” interrupted the Conservative Richard Bacon. “62 Spanish pensioners,” said Hillier. “You’re kidding me.” “62 Spanish pensioners live in the UK and about 70,000 British pensioners live in Spain,” replied the bewildered Wormald, who couldn’t see what the fuss was about. “62?”
It is difficult to find definitive data (all I want to know is how many people living in the UK were born in Spain and are over 65, but it’s not easy). So a few broad assumptions must be made:
The 2011 census recorded that there were almost 80,000 Spanish-born people resident in England and Wales. This was an increase from 54,000 in 2001 and estimates for 2016 put the number at around 120,000, but I’ll stick with the 2011 figure (even though it refers to only England and Wales and not to th eUK as a whole as Mr Wormald did). Are we seriously to believe that only 62 (0.07%) of these are of pensionable age? This becomes more incredible when you consider that the proportion of all people aged over 65 in the UK is around 18%. However, I accept two things:
1. That there are far more British ex-pats living in retirement in Spain than vice-versa (after all, who would retire from Andalusia to live in Grimsby?).
2. I also accept that people upping sticks from Spain to settle in the UK would almost certainly include proportionately a larger number of younger people. However, those younger people eventually get older (and there were 54,000 living here fifteen years ago). Do we assume they all return to Spain when they hit pension age?
So I accept that the 18% applicable to the general population may not be appropriate for the Spaniards. But a difference of a factor of more than 250? This would mean that for the general population there are roughly 180 people in every thousand over 65 whilst among the Spaniards that figure is less than one. Even if the difference between the Spaniards and the general population was a factor of 10 (i.e. 1.8% Spaniards of retirement age) there would still be around 1500 Spaniards of retirement age here. I’m afraid I don’t buy it (especially as I know three of the supposed 62).
I’ll continue to look for some definitive figures and, of course, we don’t know what Mr Wormald means when he refers to “Spanish pensioners”. Does he mean all people over 65? Does he mean those in receipt of a Spanish State Pension? Who knows. But I think it is important not to accept glib remarks made by civil servants at face value. There is no reason at all to believe that the proportion of Spaniards over 65 in the UK is different by a factor of at least 250 from the proportion of the over 65s in the population in general. It was not surprising that Mr Wormald seemed bewildered at the fuss about “62 people”. He obviously accepted what somebody had told him. But, of course if he had done a few simple sums as I just have before he opened his mouth he would have realised that what he was saying may not be quite correct.