do i need to worry about the oil running out?

[steve208]

i thought this might be the best place for this question! I have read a lot about oil and the supplies etc but i was wondering if there are any solid estimates as to when the oil will start to get very scarce?

[douggym]

Don't worry about the oil running out. IT NEVER WILL. As it becomes scarcer it will become more expensive to the extent that no-one will be able to afford it so the oil companies will stop extracting it. It will therefore remain in the earth.

[steve208]

well ok maybe i will rephrase the question.....is the current upward trend a permenant one and can you estimate when it will be too expensive to fly? Would i be right in saying that oil running out or getting veru expensive may retrict the extent to which the military can deploy?

[nickmo]

Broaden the question - are you concerned that you won't have petrol? - use corn oil - 25% of Brazils cars run on corn based fuel. Plus bio deisel is makeing inroads in Europe - BP are investing in one at present.

Or plastics? Same answer - carpet manufacturers are developing vege. based plastic fibres to replace oil based plastic fibre

Or food additives? - makers are looking at natural products (makes you shudder to think what's used in flavourings at the moment)

Or clinical drugs? much the same - lab grown and natural products.

Or packaging? - wood based is a growing development and fast food restaurants (I use the term loosely) are starting to use bio-degradable trays/boxes etc from again vege based compounds

Or clothes (rayon, nylon etc) - back to cotton then

Or no gas? - plenty of renewables about for energy

Or plastic bottles? one water company is using corn based plastics - and that removes the problem of bromates and cancer scares from sodium bromide reactions as well.

Looks like we'll all be better of then when it does give up. . .

Likely to be too expensive to extract rather than too costly to buy but I gather the balance tipped in 2002 when the demand grew 4% and the new finds by 2%, so we are already past the critical point. And thats probably why Venezuela is getting all uppity about their oil reserves and wanting to limit supply - it will be a huge political point in the near future . . .

Right, find me a whale to hug then . . .

[brachiopod]

Nice one, nickmo.
Unfortunately, all these alternatives remain expensive alternatives because of vested interest - one that refuses to believe that oil reserves will become scarcer (and thus more expensive), and, hey - why move to an alternative while (in the short-term) the going is good, there is still plenty of oil out there, there is no compulsion to find alternatives, and there are 'friends in high places'?

[jake-the-peg]

There is another problem with biofuels.

I did a "back of an envelope" calculation some time ago and worked out that just to grow enough crop for bio-diesel for the UK's car usage would take pretty much all of the agricultural land that we currently have.

Obviously then a widespread replacement of oil with biodiesel would require a massive land development and agricultural and water management project on a truely global scale.

A much better alternative will be to run car engines off of hydrogen whilst increasing the use of biological oils for lubricants.

This requires thought about where you get the energy to produce the hydrogen. Current wind farms are not efficient enough and would have to pretty much carpet the country. Especially when you recall that you cannot whistle up a storm at half-time during a cup-final.

Long term (>40 years) the answer will be fusion but until then I fear we may need a new generation of fission reactors to fill the gap

[qapmoc]

Steve you have to make your own choice on this, there are two schools of thought about this subject, one is what is becoming called the ''optimists'', mostly economists, financial consultants, etc....... they believe we have no problems and as the price rises we will find more oil and then you have the ''pessimists'', mostly geologists, oil field engineers etc who say we are at peak oil about now and oil will become more and more scarce (and expensive) from now on.
You will just have to do some reading and thinking, my take on the subject is that the pessimist statements seem to make sense while the optimists seem to be based on wishfull thinking. Google ''peak oil'' or ''resource depletion'' and read on.

As to when it will get scarce, well that would depend on where you live and how rich your country is, if you are living in a country with very few reserves then it is already becoming scarce, try looking up the current state of Zimbabwe which cannot afford to import oil now at the current prices, later it will some other country and then another and then eventually it will be scarce in France and the UK and finally the only two countries left with the size, power and military to fight over the remaining oil in the planet will be the US and China. bearing in mind that they both have nukes etc... it might not be a nice battle, expect it around twenty years from now if the pessimists are correct.