Northern Labour Voters

[Ric.ror]

Can labour win without leave supporters? If not, why do they consistently ignore them in favour of remain supporters

[Gromit]

The country is fairly evenly divided over brexit. Labour supporters are evenly divided.

// why do Labour consistently ignore Leave supports in favour of remain supporters //

They don’t. The opposite in fact.
Many consider that Labour’s poor showing in the EU election was precisely because they didn’t support Remain, and lost votes to the LibDems who did.

[ichkeria]

It is an interesting question as to whether labour can win without leave supporters. My guess is that no party would win an election were one to be called as it surely willhave to be soon.
They certainly cannot do so without remain supporters.
Neither, actually, can the conservatives.
I don’t agree that the Conservative party is finished if it fails to deliver Brexit. It is almost certainly finished as the governing party for now.

[cassa333]

Both labour and conservative were leave parties. Albeit on different terms.

Therefore leave votes were in the majority and not minority.

[Ric.ror]

For my part I believe the Labour Party has betrayed its leave voters in order to placate it’s remain supporters - probably just like the tories too

[mushroom25]

//My guess is that no party would win an election were one to be called as it surely will have to be soon. //

nah. the country has had its protest vote, and normality as in "i'll vote for the goat that wears my colour rosette" will return for the G/E.

[jim360]

I mean, I agree that the Brexit Party/Lib Dems etc probably would do less will in a General Election than the EU Elections, but if a GE were held tomorrow then the Tory vote share would still end up dropping significantly compared to 2017, and Labour's would go down too. At the moment, about half of Tory's 2017 vote (and the UKIP voters, and maybe 10% of Labour voters) are insisting that they'd vote for Farage et al in a General Election.

Obviously a campaign would change this around, but I don't think that the EU Election results are totally an anomaly, and both pro- and anti-Brexit parties are on the up.

[JF85]

"... betrayed its leave voters in order to placate it’s remain supporters"

As a remainer, I see it as both main parties betraying their remain supporters to placate leavers. The difference is that the 'angry' faction seems to be the leavers.

There is no clear majority for either position. For decision with such far-reaching consequences, the referendum was a shabby piece of political theatre that showed around a third of eligible voters in favour of leaving.

This included those who believed the trade deals would be arriving as an avalanche, plus those wanting a Canada / Norway / Switzerland deal, and of course the no deal faction.

The reason Brexit voters are desperate to avoid a rethink is that any future decision would have to sift through all the options and consider what is best for the country. A blue passport really matters less to me than continuation of preferential trade with our biggest partners. Moreover, I would rather be a member of an economic and political body, with voting rights, than an outpost of China or the US, a recipient for the goods they need to dump and at the mercy of the big corporations that cannot tell Panama from Puerto Rico.

[HBAnorak]

I think the Brexit Party would quickly go the same way as UKIP in a near future GE. They have the same problem: they don't bat very deep. Farage is a skilful politician but you won't have to go too far down the list before you are past the golf club Thatcherites and amongst the fruitcakes and racists. They will be exposed when the debate turns to domestic policy. I cannot see swathes of the north returning the likes of Ann Widdecombe to Westminster. I think Labour has less to lose if it veers towards remain and its biggest threat in a GE would be resurgent Lib Dems. There are plenty of remain supporters in northern cities, enough to preserve Labour's traditional dominance.

[Ric.ror]

Why on earth would leavers be angry

[Old_Geezer]

Maybe because we are still in the EU and had to spend money on an election unnecessarily ?

[ichkeria]

Nigel seems happy enough :-)

[New Judge]

//The difference is that the 'angry' faction seems to be the leavers.//

That’s scarcely surprising. When somebody asks you what you want, saying what you decide will be delivered, it does make you a bit upset when you’re told you’re not having it after all.

//A blue passport really matters less to me than continuation of preferential trade with our biggest partners.//

There’s no reason why preferential trade cannot continue with (what is for the moment) a collection of our biggest partners. If and when a trade deal is concluded, that is. The proposed (or indeed any) withdrawal agreement is not about trade. It is about being allowed to leave without a threat of causing us too much bother (provided many of the disadvantages of membership are retained and we pay thirty nine billion quid for the privilege).

[JF85]

I can see why voters on both sides might be angry, and I would not seek to deny Brexit supporters their righteous vexation, but I wonder how much of the spluttering is due to their recognition that it was a freak result and unlikely to be repeated? A third of eligible voters said they wanted to leave under one of a range of possibilities, now presented as 52% of the entire country wanting one very specific outcome that not even the campaign leaders were talking up.

As for the settlement, plans have been made and cash invested in long-term projects agreed by the UK. Of course the EU expect us to honour the commitments we made. We seem happy enough to give funds to ferry companies without ferries, even to transport companies who didn't even bother tendering because they thought inability to deliver might be seen as a weakness.

[New Judge]

"...but I wonder how much of the spluttering is due to their recognition that it was a freak result and unlikely to be repeated?"

My "spluttering" is born of no such thing and I believe that should a re-run of the referendum occur today (with the same question) the same answer would be returned. I don't hold with the "four-fifths of five-eighths of feck all" argument. The entire electorate was invited to vote and nothing can be assumed about those who didn't bother to pitch up. The electorate was not asked if it wanted to leave "under one of a range of possibilities". It was asked if it wanted to leave or remain and the principle consequences of leaving (leaving the single market, the customs union and the end to the jurisdiction of the ECJ) were adequately promised/threatened by both sides.

The £39bn "settlement" as it is quaintly termed is portrayed as monies for projects already begun or committed. That would be all well and good if the UK was to receive the benefits of those projects (since it is being asked to continue to stump up for them). But the EU has already declared that we will be locked out of some of the most expensive and there seems no rebate for this or those which we have already paid for.