Coronavirus

[RayH]

They say that if we do nothing then 500,000 people will die.
Here is an extract from an article on the BBC website...

Every year more than 500,000 people die in England and Wales: factor in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and the figure tops 600,000.

The coronavirus deaths will not be on top of this. Many would be within this "normal" number of expected deaths. In short, they would have died anyway.

[Peter Pedant]

,// In short, they would have died anyway.//
erm well John Maynard Keynes said "in the long run we are all dead" - so your argument runs in 1919
20 million dead in the trenches up to 1918 and then another 20m in spanish flu - they wd have died anyway
Interesting. it is a point of view I suppose


There is no point closing everything, eventually we will all get it and most of us will survive.

erm no interesting ly - I have unsuccessfully quoted the equations elsewhere

in a susceptibly population - admittedly diluted with survivors who cant be reinfected - then if each patient FAILS to infect at least one other person
then it fades out
even tho there are people who CAN catch it
they just dont bump into an infected person

Measles - one pt passes it to around 12 others and in order to break the chain you need 94 % vaccinated or immune

for this one - it is each pt screws 2 to 3 and so you only need 60% immunity - this caused chaos over the last few days as it was called "herd immunity"

AB is pretty innumerate - I have referred to the equations elsewhere to the usual squawks of protest

[grumpy01]

I think closing all the pubs,cinemas etc is a good idea,it should lead to a reduction in the number of cases.However no one seems to have talked about an exit strategy for when we try to get back to normal.

[jno]

it'll be parties in the street, grumpy, and exchanges of bodily fluid. You mark my words.

[Hymie]

I posted something along these lines earlier today, only to have the thought police deleted it (take care).

[sevenOP]

" In the winter seasons from 2013/14 to 2016/17, an estimated average of 5,290,000 ILI cases occurred in Italy, corresponding to an incidence of 9%.

•
More than 68,000 deaths attributable to flu epidemics were estimated in the study period.
•
Italy showed a higher influenza attributable excess mortality compared to other European countries. especially in the elderly."

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285