Will Flu Go Down?

[allenlondon]

Each year flu kills thousands in the UK. Will isolation reduce the incidence of flu and similar contagious disease?

[Peter Pedant]

// That is true of many viruses, Togo, although to use a small dose of the live virus as a "vaccine" probably wouldn't get past a medical ethics committee.//

o god I dont believe this !
the viral load has a few effects and I agree that 5 virus particles is unlikely to establish an infection than 100 000 particles

no evidence I am afraid that a low does gives a mild disease
think HIV - the ones from transfusion I agree died earlier than those who got it from er kissing -
but the early series - - - they all died in the end - - ergo

but ho hum - this is AB

oh it was the idea behind variolation - giving people small pox but oonly a leedol - from Lady Mary wortley montagu who was satirised by Alex Pope - from the time she was the wife of the British ambassady to Turkey ( or to the sublime porte )

and guess what happened to variolation - didnt measure up to the sagety of Jenners vaccinia which quickly displaced it

[Ellipsis]

Lady Mary gets a mention in the article I linked to, PP ...

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/04/06/how-does-the-coronavirus-behave-inside-a-patient

[Togo]

//(borrowed from some undergrad saying to Eddington//

My anology was much more amusing I'm afraid Pee Pee. It referred to the events in a Glasgow theatre when Mike and Bernie Winters were inflicting themselves on the Scots. One was on stage boring an audience of hard nosed locals with his banal presentation when the moon faced goofy half wit, put his head round the curtain and leered at the stunned into silence audience.......until someone had the presence of mind to shout "Oh Gawd There's Two Of Em". Biggest laugh they ever had on stage.

[Peter Pedant]

.Ellipsis - New Yorker article - I mean OK for AB

"It was now possible to investigate how the amount of virus-shedding—the “dose” of exposure—"

no it isnt because this phrase is medical nonsense- think - "when an earth worm flies, or does a calculation" or even colourless green ideas sleep furiously
when someone has an infectious disease - when he has it - the term viral dose is meaningless. Viral load has meaning - big you die small you may survive - or survive until it gets big when you die.

viral shedding is really when the virus leaves the host and is available to infect an uninfected host.

There is quite a lot of this about
You read an article and the jargon terms arent used correctly or in this case meaningfully. The result is rejection altho I agree that rewriting may be a more appropriate reaction

so you end up writing the article you feel he should have written

and there are other times when you think - I have no idea what the author means and I suspect neither does he.

But thanks anyway

[Freud on Netflix is good for anyone at a loose end]

[Peter Pedant]

Kelvin 1897 rewrote Carnots book on thermodynamics -
Réflexions sur la puissance motrice du feu 1837

sorting out temp and energy I think
anyway he said - "read this, now it makes sense!"
and found Mobius he of the strip had been lecturing on this since 1860.

and it did!

the problem about rewriting " epidemic what epidemic?" is the rewrite then reads - "look out of a window there is an epidemic there! - this is not science fiction - it is science fact!"
wh is a kinda restart not rewrite

[allenlondon]

No PP, it’s not an “Epidemic what epidemic” thread.

For my part, it’s about a more scientific approach to the statistics, and less sensationalism (“We’re all going to die!”)

There IS an epidemic, and I’m staying locked down.

[Peter Pedant]

and so whoops
the reason fo r the sparing effect of variolation was that
the disease in children runs a milder course

so leedol did come into it - the patient was little and not the dose

o god whilst we are here
The death of Louis XV 1770 or thereabouts was from smallpox - he had picked it up from an infected subject and hadnt had it himself ever
the r naught (Ro) of small pox is 7 - measles 12 and corona 2.3
and even then it was considered so infectious that no one in the new court of Louis XVI was allowed in
and the Kings death was signalled by a lit candle that was waved at a window and identified across the courtyard ....

[Peter Pedant]

oh we have read the same lit
and drawn different conclusions

Lees views certainly arent orthodox which is why he is getting printed

[jim360]

For sure, anyone who says "we're all going to die!" is speaking a load of hogwash. But some, and potentially quite a lot, are going to die. The measures we're taking should keep the number of deaths down from what it could very easily be, to say nothing of the number of cases.

A healthy amount of hysteria is always important in keeping diseases in check. If nobody panicked there would be far more reason to panic.

[Togo]

Yes Jim.....if everybody had their legs amputated they would never limp again.

[Peter Pedant]

New York is the test bed for "epidemic what epidemic?"

I am not sure if the worlds fave pres ( pres Trump that is!)
thinks that corona in New York is what presidents "do"

or as a few weeks ago - "epidemic what epidemic - we will all be singing Te Deums in church in English of course by 8 April "

Fauci ( american CMO kinduv) seems to have won altho I thought he was on his way out a few days ago - and we go from Churches open to 200 000 deaths in only three days
and the americans go on doing diddly squat

and "we cant quarantine it in unAmerican and the businesses cant sell" - but if you dont - -
you will all DDIIIIIEEEEEE!

[Gromit]

We are in unprecedented times and the right course is not obvious.
Whether we have under or over reacted will become obvious in time. Some countries have a different strategy, Sweden for instance where bars are still open. In 6 months time when all the figures are in, we can then judge who called it best.
But in the face of the unknown, we must be ultra cautious, even if that proves to have been the wrong strategy, When the final figures are in.

[Peter Pedant]

// Yes Jim.....if everybody had their legs amputated they would never limp again.//

yes it is true that smoker dont have two legs. I have know this for a long time. They smoke see and this is bad for circulation so a decent proportion lose one leg. The average number therefore is 1.95 and that boys and girls is not two.

noffin wrong with the stats - the interpretation may be off

[allenlondon]

Don’t get me wrong, you wise guys.

I’m mid-70s, Type II diabetic, coronary artery diseased, one leg (no PP not smoking, alcoholism), partially sighted, overweight... so my survival odds aren’t great.

But I don’t want to die in a blaze of hype, just quietly, calmly, having recently taken to the bottle after a gap of 18 years.

[Togo]

That is a tough gig Allen. I won't ask why....it can't help. But at least you are honest....with us and yourself. Take all the care of yourself that you can muster.

[allenlondon]

Togo. Ta. Toughish, but largely self inflicted!

And I haven’t yet gone back to the bottle - I’m saving that for my final weeks...

A