Conspiracy Theories

[MynameisLuca]

Am I alone in thinking that this virus is not as bad as it's made out to be?

[royfromaus]

Just had a telephone call to tell me the wife's aunty has just succumbed to the virus.
I only mention that because it hasn't changed my opinion on the OP.

It's a legitimate question.

[jim360]

In other words, to be clear, I didn't say you were wrong to tell us that "a little over a thousand in the rest of the world have died". Clearly, at the time, it was not. The criticism was at the next sentence, and at the accusations, at the time, that warning about the scale of the threat still to come was scaremongering.

[naomi24]

FF, that was irrelevant to Jim's misleading claim. That said, I still believe we have to keep a sense of proportion as I indicated in my post earlier this morning.

[aelmpvw]

tragically it looks like the said 'doom mongers' were right for once

[jim360]

The other sad fact is that keeping a sense of proportion while something is ongoing, or still (as it was in early March) barely beginning is extremely difficult, if not impossible. During February, comparisons to the flu were common, and now even those are beginning to look wildly optimistic.

[naomi24]

Jim, //I didn't say you were wrong to tell us that "a little over a thousand in the rest of the world have died".//

Why post it then - and only half the sentence at that?

And for the record, I do think you scaremonger. You did the same with Brexit.

[Mozz71]

//Oh dear, Jim. You're at it again. What a crafty bit of selective editing//

What? Like you did to me in the MPs working from home thread last night Naomi? Rather pathetic isn't it?

[jim360]

The sentence I was drawing attention to was the "we need to keep a sense of perspective".

For the record, what you think about whether I scaremonger or not is your concern, not mine. On this, I only wish I'd been scaremongering, and if I'm honest, I'm probably far angrier that I was right about this than that some random person told me I was wrong.

[mushroom25]

the following reported by a tourist-related business in East Anglia:-

//Two days ago we got the news that our business interruption insurance claim has been rejected by our insurers. Our policy included an extension for business interruption in the event of an unspecified notifiable disease within 25 miles of our premises.

This was the most comprehensive cover that was available in the UK market. Until earlier this week the Association of British Insurers website was saying that this was the type of policy that would pay out in the event of COVID 19. They have now changed this to say that only Pandemic insurance will pay out. This is a bit of a challenge as no Pandemic insurance has ever been written in the UK.

The reason insurers gave for rejecting the claim was that our losses were not a result of the virus, but as a result of action taken by government to restrict movement and this was uninsured. We challenged this as government action was a direct result of the virus and the virus was the primary cause. We are lodging a formal challenge and complaint to our insurers and we have also contacted our local MP who was very understanding and supportive and has taken this issue to government.

while the government ministers make all the right noises, those charged with enacting the policy come up with all sorts of excuses to stop it happening. I think we can reasonably expect an economic Armageddon before long.

[CrapAtCryptics]

So your extensive medical training in epidemiology makes you absolutely certain of that? How many lives would you be prepared to risk if you were wrong.

[naomi24]

Jim, //The sentence I was drawing attention to was the "we need to keep a sense of perspective". //

In that case there was no reason to post half a sentence which related to accurate figures, but with which you intended to mislead people, was there.

Mozz, ?

[jim360]

I am bored of having to rebut your constant nonsense that I was intending to mislead anybody. The first part of your quote set the context, ie that you were so focused on what the picture was "now" (ie, at the time you were posting) that you simply didn't seem able to appreciate the threat in the future. Events in the last month have already shown how sadly mistaken your call for perspective and optimism was, how hollow your cries of scaremongering directed towards anyone warning about the threat.

Not yours alone, of course. It's staggering how rapidly we moved from a position where there was still some hope that maybe the disease could be contained, kept to a mere handful of cases, to a quarter of the world's population being in some degree of lockdown.

[naomi24]

Jim, //you simply didn't seem able to appreciate the threat in the future.//

I’m not responsible for your imagination, Jim.

//Events in the last month have already shown how sadly mistaken your call for perspective and optimism//

I disagree. As of last week about 10% of confirmed cases in the UK had died. It follows then that the majority by far, haven't - and that takes no account of the vast number of unconfirmed cases that have beaten it. That, to me, is good reason to keep things in perspective - and I would have thought that you, as a mathematician would recognise that. In short, as prevalent and as awful as this virus is, it doesn’t automatically mean death, which if we all listen to people like you we could be forgiven for thinking it does.

And if you’re bored with my nonsense, rest assured you’re not half as bored with that as I am with yours. I would hate to feel as hopeless and as despondent as you do about everything, I really would.

We're going around the houses again so I don’t think I have anything more to say here at the moment.

[TheDevil]

22:35

I agree lol

[jim360]

10% of confirmed cases leading to death is actually pretty scary as diseases go -- although, as I'm sure you'd be the first to point out, confirmed cases are likely to represent only a fraction of total cases. As I've said before, the scarier disease is not the one that kills almost everybody it infects, because then it will struggle to spread far enough to kill many. What's made Coronavirus so devastating is its ability to spread so rapidly, that only serious lockdown measures have been able to combat.

I'll also thank you not to mistake my reasoned perspective for pessimism. And, besides, even if it were pessimism, then maybe a bit of empathy wouldn't go amiss. You don't cheer somebody up by telling them to stop being so low. It never works. I'd have thought you should know that as well as anybody.

[jim360]

Also, as an aside, given that there's plenty about my personal circumstances you aren't aware of, isn't it more than a little judgemental to suggest that I'm "hopeless and despondent"? Perhaps I have good reasons to be.

It's a shame that you've never learned to conduct an argument without throwing in ill-informed personal judgement or ad hominem.

[naomi24]

Jim, // given that there's plenty about my personal circumstances you aren't aware of, isn't it more than a little judgemental to suggest that I'm "hopeless and despondent"? Perhaps I have good reasons to be. //

I have no interest in your personal circumstances. I read what you write here, that’s all - and that’s what I respond to.

[jim360]

It's a shame, then, that you continually read without understanding, and without giving more thought to the people behind the words you misunderstand. "More empathy and less judgement" is rarely bad advice, and it's certainly not here.