Statistics And Lies

[diddlydo]

The bar charts that we're being shown every afternoon in the press conference are completely meaningless when it comes to daily deaths going up or down as they only cover "new reported deaths", some of which happened days or even weeks previously. How does the government hope to inspire any confidence in its honesty?

14:17
England records 514 more hospital deaths taking total to 16,786
NHS England has announced 514 more deaths of people who tested positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of confirmed reported deaths in hospitals in England to 16,786. The full details are here (pdf).

Of the 514 new deaths announced today:

111 occurred on 22 April.
216 occurred on 21 April.
75 occurred on 20 April.
The figures also show 110 of the new deaths recorded took place between 1-19 April, and the remaining two deaths occurred in March, with the earliest new death taking place on 25 March.

NHS England releases updated figures each day showing the dates of every coronavirus-related death in hospitals in England, often including previously uncounted deaths that took place several days or even weeks ago. This is because of the time it takes for deaths to be confirmed as testing positive for Covid-19, for postmortems to be processed, and for data from the tests to be validated.

The figures published today by NHS England show 8 April currently has the highest total for the most hospital deaths occurring on a single day: 831."

[ToraToraTora]

still waiting for an answer to my question at 15:31 yesterday.

[Mozz71]

Considering the stats are just for hospital deaths, it's little more than a ballpark figure of total deaths anyway.

It's a safe bet that we will not learn accurate numbers until after the pandemic is over.

[fiction-factory]

>2 of the "new" deaths reported in today's total actually happened in March!

The only alternative I can see if you didn't want them including in yesterday's figure would be to go back and change the figures for the relevant days in March. I think the briefings would be very unwieldy if they had to say "today we report 825 deaths , of which 741 occurred yesterday, 27 on the days before , 16 on Tuesday.... and 3 on March 27th"

But I'd welcome your suggestion.

[dannyk13]

Doddly, You are the only person who does not understand that deaths cannot be recorded until they are reported.Have you now switched your obsession with Boris to the Government?

[diddlydo]

TTT - nobody said Labour could/would supply better figures. My point is that we shouldn't be misled by statistics which don't tell the whole truth.

[dannyk13]

Diddly, if you are not happy with the statistics then don't read them.

[Mozz71]

Diddly, they (probably) tell as much truth as is available at the time of each press conference.

What would you prefer they do? Not give any figures until they know them for sure? You could be waiting for weeks.

[diddlydo]

Danny - yes, because the stand-ins i.e. Hancock, Raab etc are too frightened to make any positive decisions but are just treading water while the country as a whole would appreciate some glimmer of hope regarding a possible end of lockdown.

[fiction-factory]

Yes, Mozz- it's probably the Excess Mortality figure that will inform us most. The daily hospital deaths figure is still really useful in that it's easier to compile quickly (although there are still occasional time lags between death and a certificate) and we can see whether the curve is flattish or falling. The limitation would be if COVID deaths were falling in hospital as social distancing measures were working but deaths could still be rising in Care Homes- I think that may be happening and may be why testing is being 'ramped up' there

[dannyk13]

Diddly, they cannot issue a definite time when the lock down can be lifted or when it is likely that Corvid19 will be eradicated(if ever). If you know better then I suggest that you let them know.

[ToraToraTora]

diddly 09:16, so what is the point of this post? You agree that your Labour could do no different!

[fiction-factory]

diddlydo- regardless of which minister is leading the briefing do you listen to what the scientific advisers are saying. I think it's pretty clear that they feel we should be very cautious about relaxing lockdown.
I do think though that Boris has the skills to be firm whilst offering hope and is more inspiring than some of the others. I can always predict exactly the words Raab is going to use to answer a question.