Covid Projections

[Gromit]

Some interesting graphs here.

Hope the worst case projections are wrong.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom?view=mask-use&;tab=trend

What do you make of them ?

[Gromit]

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

[New Judge]

//NJ

5 March
//Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London gave evidence today to the UK’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology as part of an inquiry into the nation’s response to the coronavirus outbreak.
He said that UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, and could be much lower. //

28 March.
// According to Imperial College London’s new predictions, Britain is on course for around 5,700 deaths //
///

Yes thanks for those. Although I didn't make it clear, I was thinking of a little more recently. The predictions you mention are over eighteen months old and predate the vaccination programme by a long chalk.

Prof Ferguson forecast that there would be 100,000 infections a day if lockdown measures were eased on 19th July (2021), a figure which he since stated was wrong and which the Health Secretary has recently said was probable. Prof Ferguson also said, on 28th July that he was "..."positive" the pandemic will be over by October."

I’ve no problem with people taking wild stabs (for that's all they are) at how they believe the now endemic disease will progress. Their guesses are as good as mine and should be treated with equal respect, caution or contempt (depending on your own point of view). The trouble is, this government has been in thrall to these people whose predictions are no more valuable than those of gifted amateurs. And it has caused enormous damage.

[ToraToraTora]

the whole mask thing is a massive con trick, how slapping a bit of rag across my boat helps I don't know. social distancing at least has some logic to it. We are sadly still being influenced by the Covid fan club who are loving the pandemic and want it to last forever. What is the point of the vaccine unless it means we can dispense with all the BS?

[bobbinwales]

If some of you slap rags across your face or even damp rags as newjudge suggests or unwashed fir 18 months one's like 10cs then maybe try wearing and using one properly as is advised by scientists anddoctors in crowded places with people you don't know. Unless you distrust doctors of course. They may only help by 20% or don't we need every bit of help we can here.

[Peter Pedant]

// What is the point of the vaccine unless it means we can dispense with all the BS?//

because vaccines arent a cure-all
durr

so we have rabies vaccines so we dont worry about rabid dogs ? righto!

[dave50]

Gromit - Yes we may very reach 140000 deaths soon but so what? What does it prove? We are an island with very densely populated areas. Are you suggesting we should have done things differently, if so what? What do you suggest we do going forward to stop people dying, cower at home 24/7 all masked up just in case? We have been through a pandemic, people die unfortunately, that's what happens. We can't save everyone. The vulnerable and stupid anti vaxxers must take their own precautions and the rest of us must be allowed to get on with our lives and get back to work and get the economy moving again. That's what's important now.

[Peter Pedant]

foo yeah Bobbi

or verb sap - - that is short Latin boys and girlz

[Peter Pedant]

// Are you suggesting we should have done things differently, if so what?//

lock down sooner - as we locked down anyway
so track and trace efficiently it is still crap
prepare when they were told to prepare rather than wait and see

[bobbinwales]

//get the economy moving again....// you didn't add but accept lots of infections, work absences, hospitalcases, cancelled ops, deaths. Unless people take more care, dustance properly, ventilate rooms, isolate when positive or sympotomatic and we enforce testing or vax passports for work or large venues we are going to have a stop start economy and hospital overload in winter