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Good News From Vilnius
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I don't know what was said between "Sweden can't join Nato until discussions on Turkey's membership of the EU recommences", and this, but whatever it was it worked.
Many people were suspicious when Erdogan suddenly appeared to be retreating from the Kremlin: earlier backing Ukraine joining Nato, and - to the fury of Russia - sending Ukrainian Azovstal prisoners back with Zelensky at the weekend after the latter's successful trip to Istanbul. Those suspicions appeared justified with the EU thing, but I would like to see Mr Peskov's face now.
I don't know what was said between "Sweden can't join Nato until discussions on Turkey's membership of the EU recommences", and this, but whatever it was it worked.
Many people were suspicious when Erdogan suddenly appeared to be retreating from the Kremlin: earlier backing Ukraine joining Nato, and - to the fury of Russia - sending Ukrainian Azovstal prisoners back with Zelensky at the weekend after the latter's successful trip to Istanbul. Those suspicions appeared justified with the EU thing, but I would like to see Mr Peskov's face now.
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It's discussed at length on here ichi;
https:/
https:/
ichi; Sorry that doesn't seem to work, if you want to read it, try;
https:/
and scroll go the bottom of the page & click 'view online'
https:/
and scroll go the bottom of the page & click 'view online'
Sorry khandro it’s too German for me ;-)
I think maybe some sort of customs Union pledge?
NATO isn’t the EU however but they’d already stated that they weren’t prepared to accept that condition.
EU membership for Turkey is a distant prospect so it was an odd one.
Turkeys Parliament must ratify Sweden’s membership.
Hungary apparently doesn’t want to be the only dissenting voice and so will also agree
I think maybe some sort of customs Union pledge?
NATO isn’t the EU however but they’d already stated that they weren’t prepared to accept that condition.
EU membership for Turkey is a distant prospect so it was an odd one.
Turkeys Parliament must ratify Sweden’s membership.
Hungary apparently doesn’t want to be the only dissenting voice and so will also agree
ichi; I'll cut & paste a bit in;
“It is a typical Erdoğan move to take a maximalist position in a high-stakes negotiation, show readiness to walk, then compromise for progress on key demands,” Rich tells us.
Not (yet) in writing is a looming deal for Turkey to buy F-16 fighter jets from the United States, a likely carrot for Turkish approval of Sweden’s membership. “The practice of international relations is not an art for the purist,” says Dan. “If the Biden team made some understanding, I would look favorably on it.”
Chris who’s in Vilnius, notes that Erdoğan is only sending the decision on Sweden’s NATO accession to the Turkish parliament, which his party controls, so this is not a done deal. Erdoğan made a show of lending his support to an invitation for Finland and Sweden to join NATO a year ago in Madrid before drawing out the process until now. “There is a non-zero chance that some intervening circumstance (like another public Quran burning [in Sweden]) could serve as pretext for derailing the process again,” he says. “I want to be optimistic, but worry that I have seen this movie before. NATO should not spike the football until it is over the goal line.”
With the action now moving to the Turkish legislature, Erdoğan “retains the ability to kill or delay accession if Sweden backs off on counterterror” measures that Turkey wants or if an F-16 deal doesn’t materialize.
“It is a typical Erdoğan move to take a maximalist position in a high-stakes negotiation, show readiness to walk, then compromise for progress on key demands,” Rich tells us.
Not (yet) in writing is a looming deal for Turkey to buy F-16 fighter jets from the United States, a likely carrot for Turkish approval of Sweden’s membership. “The practice of international relations is not an art for the purist,” says Dan. “If the Biden team made some understanding, I would look favorably on it.”
Chris who’s in Vilnius, notes that Erdoğan is only sending the decision on Sweden’s NATO accession to the Turkish parliament, which his party controls, so this is not a done deal. Erdoğan made a show of lending his support to an invitation for Finland and Sweden to join NATO a year ago in Madrid before drawing out the process until now. “There is a non-zero chance that some intervening circumstance (like another public Quran burning [in Sweden]) could serve as pretext for derailing the process again,” he says. “I want to be optimistic, but worry that I have seen this movie before. NATO should not spike the football until it is over the goal line.”
With the action now moving to the Turkish legislature, Erdoğan “retains the ability to kill or delay accession if Sweden backs off on counterterror” measures that Turkey wants or if an F-16 deal doesn’t materialize.
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