conception

[jacobsmummy]

Ok does anyone know the statistics of falling pregnant first time twice? we got pregnant on our first try and now were thinking of trying for our next child my partner is convinced that his 'super sperm' will find the egg first time again and therefore there is no need to start trying straight away.

I know hes being silly but i want scientific evidence to back me up, i heard somewhere that theres as much chance of conceiving triplets naturally as there is of conceiving first time twice, is this correct?

Please can someone help me, itd really help me out to prove him wrong!

thanks :-)

[bednobs]

30 per cent of couples conceive within a month of starting to try for a baby.
75 per cent conceive within six months.
90 per cent conceive within a year.
95 per cent conceive within two years.

[theprof]

I'll be honest with you and say that If someone came up to me with figures of this nature, I'd be very sceptical. Two reasons occur to me immediately and I'll try to explain without going too deeply into statistics.

Firstly, I doubt very much whether any ante-natal clinics, GP's, midwives etc collate this information. Can you recall any medical professional asking either of you how many times you had made love before you conceived? It's a very personal issue that some may find offensive and I can't see these people risking a broken nose or a complaint made against them however well intentioned their research.

I sometimes advise the Biochemistry department's of two of the UK's largest teaching hospitals, both with O and G Departments. I've seen my fair share of medical records compliled by consultants/registrars and SHO's and I've never seen any notes made about first time conceptions.

Without the collection and collation of data, there is no way the odds can be calculated and thus, conclusions drawn.

Secondly, you need to remember that calculating the odds in matters like this are not straightforward. It would be possible to compile a whole host of contradictory statistics. For example, Is the mother a smoker? Is she over 30? Is she over 40? Did she drink alcohol during any of the trimesters? What social class can she be categorised as? What's her ethnic origin?

It's simply not possible to blindly collect information like this from mother's as all the above factors and many others may have influenced the conception. Don't misunderstand - I'm not saying that any of them do influence the chances of conception, but they may do so and that's enough to upset the data conclusions. The possible permutations are immense, which would make the whole exercise futile.

[theprof]

Hmm, the figures provided by bednobs do show a trend that as times goes on, the chances of conception increases.

I'll get in first and preempt any sarcastic remarks such as "Well, I never!" because the information provided by bednobs should be taken into consideration when appropriate. It would have been useful had bednobs cited the source.

Nevertheless, I don't think that this was the information you were requesting jacobsmummy (wonderful name by the way!).

[theprof]

I've always considered statistics great when it comes to stating the obvious.

[bednobs]

sorry, i should have said that those figures come from the "fertility" section of th bbc website, who in turn don't really state where they got those figures from.. Common sense would tell me that if 30% of couples who are actively trying get pregnant within a month, then if you are trying agin, then you have an equal 30% chance (assuming you are in the same physical health as the first time) common sense also tells me that you certainly dont have a 30% chance of having triplets! otherwise there would be triplets all over the place

[bednobs]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/health/fertility/features _professionalhelp.shtml#how_long_does_it_take_ to_get_pregnant?

sorry i take it all back, they DO state their sources (the hfea)

[jacobsmummy]

thankyou all for your help, i suppose theres really only one way of finding out whos right, and hey at least that parts fun!
;-)

[mummytait]

I got pregnant first time twice.

I'm really glad I was careful for the 10 years before!!!!! and my husband had the snip VERY soon after second son.

Good Luck