Probability

[Trotbot]

If you are given three choices (1,2,3) and you choose 1, and 2 is revealed to be wrong, statistically you should always change to 3. However, what are the probabilities of the various permutations? A modest wager is riding on this.

[HWKE]

These are the combinations
First choice Switch Probability
Correct Incorrect 1/3
Incorrect Correct 1/3
Incorrect Correct 1/3
The probability of the outcome is dependent on the initial choice. Winning is dependent on choosing �incorrectly� on your first try, so the probability of failure is 1/3 and probability of success is 1-1/3=2/3.
Sorry for the table alignment. Can't get it to work and have to go out.
physics.usask.ca/~chang/phys404/notes/Monty_Hall.doc