Hague says Brown would be a coward not to call election

[Gromit]

Gordon Brown will show "political cowardice" if he does not call a snap general election, William Hague says.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7025447 .stm

Is he bonkers? The Tories would be decimated if there was an election now. Surely Hague knows that?

[naomi24]

Is he bonkers? If he really believes this then I think he must be. What world are these people living in? The Tories flounder from one idea to the next in an attempt to gain favour, and present no real opposition whatsoever. Added to that, they have their biggest liability leading them - dopey David Cameron. Not exactly encouraging, is it?! They haven't a hope of winning an election now.

[Loosehead]

If Gordon belived they would be decimated he would have called it by now, clearly he doesn't! The trouble is gromit you only take in things you agree with so your view is not surprising.

[Gromit]

Loosehead

I actually hope the Tories get their act together because a weak opposition is a very bad thing. I don't think it is just my view, the tory Daily Telegraph in the assessment below, paints a gloomy picture for the Conservatives.

I think Brown will call an election, immediately after Cameron's closing speech, because he thinks he can win.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml =/news/2007/09/29/npoll329.xml

[naomi24]

Loosehead, not an argument, simply a question. Do you think the Conservatives could win an election now?

[Loosehead]

It's not impossible that they could win, they are behind yes, but there is still a lot of seething resentment of what New Labour has done. The trouble is Tory voters tend to keep quiet about it. In 1992 when Major won unexpectedly I couldn't find a single Tory voter the next day yest they won. Kinnochio must have dispaired. I'm just saying it's not a forgone conclusion. Brown knows it that's why he's being cautious, he doesn't want to be the shortest serving PM in history.

[Reverandfunk]

I'm sure someone will tell me but if there is an election anytime soon what percentage swing would the tories need to get into power?

I'm sure it would take a massive one the likes of which has never been seen before.

[Pippa68]

Likewise, Loosehead..the day after Tony Blair won his last term I couldn't find a single Labour voter!

I was most confused..

[Loosehead]

The trouble is rev that the %tage does not tell the story. For example Labour has about 60 marginal seats that where once tory with very small majorites, not much swing needed there. The whole ethos of using %tages is flawed and can often throw up anomolies. When Labour won it's huge landslide in 97 they got 47% of a 53% turnout, ie around a quarter of voters voted for them but they had a huge majority but if you stick to the %tage they where in fact a minority goverement. QED it's clearly boll0cks to base the argument on %tages when we don't have PR (thank god!). Of course the polsters love all that swing/% stuff and it gives Peter Snow somthing to wave his arms about at!

[jake-the-peg]

The problem is that Cameron has a personal credibility problem.

I saw a poll in the mail that said only 19% of people would trust him in a crisis over Brown

That's in the Mail!

And for better or worse General elections are a lot about the leader.

I don't think he can win unless he can fix that problem.

[ludwig]

Of course Hague doesn't think they can win - but what's he supposed to say?.

Loosehead makes a good point. You always have to bump a few points on to the opinion polls in favour of the Tories, because basically people are ashamed to admit that they are going to vote for them - even to pollsters.
Kinnock failed to take this into account and made the mistake of staging a victory celebration before the votes had actually been cast.
I think that's a lesson no politician will ever forget.

[Lonnie]

For Pippa68,
The reason you couldn't find a Labour voter, is because they were all in Scotland, Labour actually lost in England and Wales, it was the Scottish vote that put Bliar back in, and i'm afraid that history may well will repeat itself at the next General Election.

[Gromit]

Lonnie

Probably revenge for the Thatcher years when Scotland didn't have a single Conservative MP and yet still had a Conservative Government running the country.

[Lonnie]

You could be right there Gromit.