Andy, re the 'condom' quote, I had never seen/heard any connection of it to Schwarzeneger until I myself made one right here on AB all these months ago!
I'm not much of a cinema-goer, so I've no idea who today's tall, muscled film-actors are, but the Schwarzeneger connection seemed the perfectly obvious one to make as far as I was concerned when someone here asked who should play Reacher.
As to which of Child/James first created the simile, that's presumably a simple matter of dating...ie establishing which of the Child novel/James broadcast was made public first. (There's a little project for someone...might even have a look at it myself later, time permitting.)
Either of these two men could, of course, have heard it at third or fiftieth hand, but - on the face of it - it seems to me more likely that James would have read a Reacher novel than that Child would have seen a James broadcast, if we're thinking of first-hand connections.
I've no idea which novel it appeared in, by the way, but appear it certainly did.
Cheers