It's a well worn truth that oppositions do not win elections - Governments loose them.
MMost of Brown's problems are not of his making, they spring from the banking crisis and oil prices.
If Blair had hung on another year he'd have picked up all the blame and Brown would be the 5th cavalry riding in to save the day.
If the Tories had one the last election things would be the same, I think worse because I think they might not have bailed out Northern Rock and precipitated a banking crisis.
But we'll never know.
The way I see it Brown still has time for another roll of the dice. It needs quite a bit of luck too but with an American election about to happen strange things could come about especially without a really strong opposition.
A large scale withdrawal from Iraq would help no end but personally I think it's a long shot.
My money's on a Tory victory and total ****-up, followed by a Labour return after that - there are now too many voters who don't really remember a Tory administration and need to be reminded whose interests the Tories traditionally support.
Not middle-England but Big Business