POKER heads up

[MargeB]

In holdem 1v1, what are the odds of no player matching a pocket card with the board, and thus the highest card winning?

[Hammer]

OK, lets assume that all 4 hole cards are different, so there are 3x4=12 cards in the deck that would make a pair.

Probability of none of the community cards matching these is 36/48 x 35/47 x 34/46 x 33/45 x 32/44

=0.22

So you would get no pair about 22% of the time.

This percentage would be lower if both players had one or both the same cards to start with.

[Hammer]

Actually, not sure about that last bit, but my brain's gone now!

[MargeB]

Hi,

That's great thanks, I think the last bit is true also...one of the other cards that were sought are already spoken for (in another pocket).

Quite significant that. A4 vs K3 is beating on strength of cards but also has the 22 percent chance of nothing happening and winning on that basis. Thanks.

[Hammer]

Right, I've done some sums.

If both players share one card (eg AK v AQ) then the prob of high card winning is 38%

If both players have the same hand, high card will win 50% of the time, but of course this will always be a draw (if you don't count flushes).

On heads up play though, it would very rarely go to all five cards, you should be bluffing well before then !!

[MargeB]

Thanks hammer.

I play a lot of turbo (accelerated blind increase), so ALL-IN is very common, I guess I should look on the AKs more favourably now.

[Hammer]

Heads up AK is a very strong hand, wouldn't think twice about going all in with that, especially if you get in first.

[MargeB]

Well, mid-game turbo tourney holdem 5 handed if I'm a chip leader, I probably won't want to compromise my stack for anything. My AK off is only 50-50 versus even 77, so I guess it's all about position in game, and strategy, and button position. Any limper will go all in with 77, a desperado will go all in with anything. They have everything to gain by doubling up against me at any odds, I can gain by not taking that risk and waiting for a flop where I can see my odds better.

I think games are won or lost on those decisions.

[Hammer]

One of the hardest things to do is fold a good hand, but you have to sometimes. Especially like you said if you're chip leader and someone goes all in.

Once you're ahead, make sure you stay ahead. Patience, patience, patience. There's much more to the game than the cards you get dealt...

[MargeB]

I agree. I think some people make money consistently because they think of what the other has, when few others are. He has AAA, but the board has four hearts, why would the other guy be betting like crazy.

"Worst hand in poker is the second best hand." I'd rather have 2-3 off preflop and fold it, than have AA pocket and fall too much in love with it.

[Hammer]

Yep, you can't lose big with a pants hand!