Of course it’s an assumption, Kromo. You cannot produce “evidence” to say for certain what will happen in the future. However, you can make some assumptions based on evidence of what has happened in the past – the basis, I believe of forecasting. There is ample evidence of religious organisations being prevented by Equality or Human Rights legislation from following their doctrines. The Catholic Church, for example, is winding up its adoption service because it was told it would be breaking the law if it refused to place children with homosexual couples
I’m not quite sure what you mean by the implications of my argument. I’m certainly not suggesting that those minority organisations that wish to provide civil ceremonies should be prevented from doing so. On the contrary, I believe any organisation should be free to choose what it does in this respect. What I’m arguing about is the implications of revoking the specific law preventing civil ceremonies taking place in church.
Firstly I’m surprised that this law has not already been challenged on Human Rights grounds. But that’s another matter. If, however, the law is modified to “allow” organisations to perform such ceremonies the Church of England has stated that it will refuse to do so. Because all organisations will be (ostensibly) free to offer the service or not it will be very much easier to bring a charge of discrimination against those who do not. So the C of E, far from being “free to choose” will almost certainly be accused of discrimination. For the Catholic Church on the adoption issue it meant they were no longer able to offer an adoption service, but they could still carry out their core activities. If the C of E loses its corner on this issue it may be a little trickier.
As I said, we need not argue. All we need to do is wait and see.