The Use Of Statistics?

[youngmafbog]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/apr/25/uk-avoid-triple-dip-recession-gdp-growth

Well I am glad it is positive but 0.3%? If it had been 0.4% less it would have been classed as recession, but what really is the difference.

And, how would the media have portrayed -0.1%? Quite quite different I wold imagine, particularly the left wing press.

Should we really get upset (or even excited) about these figures unless they get into integers at least.

[Gromit]

The Conservatives are pleased because the triple dip would have been politically embarrassing. But it is not great. In Labour's 13 years we had 5 quarters of negative growth during the finanical crash of 2008-09. If this quarter had been negative, that would have been the coalition's sixth negative quarter. As it is the coalition also have had 5 negative quarters, but in 3 years not 13.

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/67229000/gif/_67229470_gdp_figs_624gr.gif

[jim360]

It's better to just state that over the last 3 years the UK economy has effectively flatlined. Small deviations from that don't really mean a recession, or growth - at least to me.

[LazyGun]

I would imagine the error bars alone could theoretically change this number from a positive to a negative.

Whichever way you look at it - its not good news, and not very robust evidence of anything other than a continuing lack of confidence.

[Gromit]

Also worth noting from the above graphic on the link, Labour's recession peaked at -2.1% but had climbed to 0.7% b the time they were booted out. That was 2.7% in the right direction. Since then growth has been week apart from the Olympic bump in 2012 3rd quarter.

[mikey4444]

I used to work for the ONS and 0.3% is well within the boundaries of error, one way or another.

And, no, I don't think its anything to get excited about one little bit. We will never make a recovery from this depression until we have substantial sustainable growth. This is not a party political point, as everybody seems to agree that we need growth, but not, unfortunately, how to get it. But increasing unemployment never, ever works.

[DTCwordfan]

As it's a sampling technique, they tend to be very conservative with their numbers on first showing and go low, updating as they go on and the full tax position becomes apparent. Expect the final figure to be 0.5 to 0.6% when they finally close out.