Electoralcalculus Updated

[mikey4444]

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Labour was 42% probability of winning...now 44%. Conservatives still only on
8% chance of winning.

Electoralcalculus now predict the chances of a colalition with the Nats for the first time. Notice that UKIP are still not predicted to have any seats or influence.

[mikey4444]

Blackadder...for your information :::

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_Calculus

As you can see, EC is not a Polling organisation and does not commission Polls of its own. To quote from its own website :::

Electoral Calculus predicts the next British General Election result using scientific analysis of opinion polls and electoral geography.

Have a good look at the site, not just its headline predictions. It contains very in-depth analysis of every constituency in the country. If I look at my own, Gower in Wales, I can see exactly what the voting was in every ward. You can do the same with your own.

Its a very useful site, with masses of details and information, and is worth a good perusal, if you can only get past your own prejudices !

[Thecorn]

Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."
- Mark Twain's Own Autobiography: The Chapters from the North American Review