What Substances Are Nick Clegg Currently On?

[ToraToraTora]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31892955
Even he must know the Limpdums are going to get wiped out in May.

[Gromit]

That is what I thought when I read that yesterday.

I reckon they will have between 15 - 20 seats in 8 weeks time.

I suppose they might as well live in a reality distortion bubble for a few more weeks before their bubble is pricked.

[jim360]

Very possibly he does, although with still over a month to go it's possible that they will turn things round or at least stanch the loss of voters enough to hold on to something around half their seats. But what exactly can he say otherwise? It is the job of a party leader to talk up their chances and present a note of optimism. If -- as is realistic -- all parties except Labour and the Tories stood up and said "well, let's face it, we can't win anything more than a handful of seats at best so let's just say whatever for all the good it will do", it might be more truthful but it would also be utterly stupid for a leader to say that.

[sandyRoe]

Was David Steel on the same stuff when he said: 'Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government.'?

[ludwig]

He's got to maintain a positive outlook, and 'Go back to your constituencies and prepare for obscurity' wouldn't be the best slogan for that.

[ichkeria]

The Lib Dems will probably do much better than people think
They are still strong in areas where they have a high profile, such as our area where they actually gained seats in the local elections
What they will lose of course in the third party 'protest' vote in lots of places
They are likely to be the fourth largest party in parliament behind the SNP with whom I think it is unlikely either of the two parties will want to form a coalition and the SNP wouldn't go with the Tories anyway. The question may be would they actually want to be in another coalition with Lab or Con?

[Gromit]

Ick,
Not sure the Local Election proves your point, quite the opposite.

Going into the Local Elections they had 737 councillors. They lost 310 seats. Translate that to a general election and theor vote falls off a cliff.

[ichkeria]

Yes they lost a lot of seats and they will no doubt lose a lot of parliamentary seats but the point is that in some areas they will probably not do too badly

[youngmafbog]

When it comes to the crunch will lid dem voters actually desert the party.

The reality is they have had a taste of power, and they have had policies implemented.

If the voters desert the lib Dems where do they go? Neither Labour or Tory really cut the mustard for them.

I may well be wrong but I dont think it will be total annihilation, probably be in the low 20's though.

[mikey4444]

A few months ago, I would have agreed that Cleggie would be virtually wiped out in May, but now I am not too sure.

Electoral Calculus gives them about 14 seats, which may still be useful if the voting is as close between Labour and the Tories as it is predicted to be.

I don't think we should write off the Libs just yet.

[Gromit]

// If the voters desert the lib Dems where do they go? Neither Labour or Tory really cut the mustard for them. //

It was pretty clear that the Last minute LibDem gains at the 2010 General Election came from the Labour Party. If LibDem voters go anywhere else, it will most likely be back to the Labour Party (or SNP in Scotland).

[Gromit]

Mikey
Electoral calculus predict the Libdems will lose all their seats in Scotland.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html

They won't be totally wiped out, but they will go from 57 seats to less than 20.