Snp Up Against It

[jim360]

A Dire warning today by Lord Ashcroft that the SNP could sweep the board in the election, winning 50+/59 seats -- and even all of them!

http://may2015.com/featured/election-2015-stunning-ashcroft-polls-show-the-snp-could-win-every-seat-in-scotland/

Bot, on the other hand, this is based on the SNP's opponents splitting the opposition vote. The last month or so has seen an interesting campaign to unite the opposition parties and vote tactically against the SNP instead.

If it works, then the resulting change in parliamentary arithmetic could be interesting. In the first place, the Conservatives look set to come second in a handful of seats, tactical voting therefore allowing them to win maybe five Scottish seats -- and a similar number for the Lib Dems. With current UK predictions implying the Tories will be at around 280 seats, an extra five or so wouldn't hurt.

Of course the biggest winner will be Labour, which saved from a total wipeout could win something like 300+ seats instead. Still, at least it would be a Labour government freed of being dragged too far to the left by the SNP...

For interested Scottish voters, the current tactical voting guide is summarised handily in this wheel:

http://tinyurl.com/nmjh4xp

Some links below

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/mar/05/scottish-tactical-voting-campaigns-snp-landslide-fears-union-general-election

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/10/how-tactically-minded-scots-may-affect-election/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11533602/Guide-to-tactical-voting-against-the-SNP-published.html

[Azalian]

Only a "dire warning" if you aren't an SNP supporter. If you are, it's great news!

And how exactly are they "up against it" ?

[:pagan:]

Tactical voting is a sham. Vote in what you believe.

[jim360]

Tactical voting is also a part of any sensible voting system, sadly. FPTP in particular, as voting for "what you believe" often ends up getting no reward.

The SNP are "up against it" in the sense that people really don't want them to win. On the other hand, it probably won't matter, as it's hard to see tactical votes against the SNP being of a high enough volume to tip the balance in more than a few seats. But even SNP supporters may not be so pleased even after a resounding victory -- depends on how things play out, of course, but the fortunes of the Conservatives/ Labour in England will still be the most important factor.

[anneasquith]

tories, 5 Scottish seats very unlikely. some areas will still be faithful to labour rather than snp. we should not forget Scotland voted against independence.

[steg]

Up against it,,, really?

Also Jim, the SNP already have an alliance with the Greens and Pliad Cymru which will give them maybe another +15seats?

[jim360]

Steg -- I probably should have included a question mark in the thread title, to be fair. The united front against the SNP is remarkable, although it will probably not translate into a set of surprising results at the polls.

At for the fates of the Greens and Plaid Cymru... good luck to them. As far as I can see PC's attempt to ride on the coat-tails of the SNP is not working, while the Green party is just not attracting enough support to win many seats. There was a report that Natalie Bennett is proving to be not that popular a leader amongst students, which is where the Green Party should enjoy its greatest level of support, and that's pushing people to more conventional parties.

I don't think any other left-wing party than the SNP will be a factor. Still, there may yet be a surprise waiting for us. This election is likely to be full of them.