Interesting Article From Peter Kellner Of Yougov

[mikey4444]

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/29/why-its-so-hard-cameron-win/

It seems that dave has a mountain to climb, if he is to remain in Number Ten after next week. Look at the third option. At present, Labour and the Tories are neck and neck at 280 seats each in YouGov Polls. Its about seats won, not how popular a party is that counts, something lots of people have perhaps not realised....its the arithmetic !

Not good news for dave. Kellner and others have been predicting this situation for ages. It looks to me as if we may have another, fairly immediate 2nd Election....unheard of to my knowledge.

[ichkeria]

As I have said before here I don't see how Cameron can govern in most likely predicted scenarios simply because of the likely majority of the progressive parties.
He can rant and rave all he likes about Labour and the SNP in government together but those parties don't need any sort of alliance naturally to oppose a Tory minority govt or LibDem coalition

[mikey4444]

ichkeria...it will all come down to arithmetic in the end !

[mushroom25]

a similar situation was extant in february 1974, and didn't precipitate an immediate 2nd election - why should it be any different this time?

[mikey4444]

Mush...what Kellner is saying is that dave will have to win the post Election Queens Speech Vote. If he doesn't, he is honour bound to resign and HM will then ask Ed if he can form a Government. It could be that he can't either, so a 2nd Election will be needed. Dave as the sitting PM will remain in post, until this second Election.

My personal view is that I agree with Kellner, and that this scenario probably won't happen, and Ed will form a Government. But unless he has continuing loyalty from the other Parties supporting him, another Election will be needed in the autumn....just like in 1974.

[mushroom25]

Ed likely to lead a minority government, in a social contract with the SNP; until they fall out, as they inevitably will. that'll be even more interesting, to see if the scottish electorate will judge the SNP's performance kindly....

[mikey4444]

When push comes to shove next week Mush, I have a feeling that the SNP won't get quite as many seats as is being predicted, but still a sizable number, no doubt. But its not really going to matter much, as whether its l
Labour or the SNP, it will be still be vehemently anti-Tory, and will amount to much the same thing.

Very interesting times we are having at the moment, as I am sure you will agree !

[Gromit]

Thanks for posting this article Mikey. I have been trying to explain to TTT on another thread how Cameron is vunerable if he does not get a majority. Kellner's article report demonstrates how Cameron could find himself facing a leadership challenge if he fails to get the required majority.

[jno]

"rock star US statistician" Nate Silver says he doesn't know; it'll depend on alliances btu he doesn't think the Tories can do it. The question is: is the two-party system at an end?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32488206

[mikey4444]

jno...to answer your last question....yes, it is at an end, at least temporarily. But there can be only one PM after May 7th and it will still be a choice between Ed and dave....so maybe it isn't that different after all.

I saw Sturgeon being interviewed a few minutes ago, on Ch 4 News. She came over as the Woman to Watch. She has more fire in her belly than Alex Salmond ever had, and it shows, in spades.

A King Maker without any doubt.

[mikey4444]

Gromit...lots of people on here are blind to the truth that is staring them in he face. Its the arithmetic that will win the day. A few days ago, a regular AB poster was still saying spouting patent drivel, in the form of that UKIP will win a landslide in 2020 !

[sandyRoe]

There were 2 elections in '74

[jim360]

The big problem we face now, apparently, is that two-party politics is over, but -- and I'm sorry if this sounds like flogging a dead horse, but it is important -- the manner in which we elect our politicians is not geared towards minor parties so that, to some extent, the "wrong ones" are going to play a larger role. Here, I mean wrong ones in the sense of parties that are going to have more role than the public wanted, not necessarily the ones with the wrong policies. An example is the Lib Dems, who look set to be severely hit but still hold on to 20-odd MPs despite being predicted to have a lower vote share than UKIP, who will probably only end up with a couple of MPs. Or the SNP, whose concentrated vote will deliver them at least 40 and probably 50 MPs, which is twice as many as they would have got in a purely Proportional system. Incidentally the Green Party may also get

I'm not saying that we should switch to PR (giving no escape from coalition and with no accountability, pure Proportional Representation is a system that is in practice unsound), but if two-party politics is over then it's time that the system changes to better reflect this. It just does not at the moment. We should at least reconsider the question of electoral reform in light of the election result.

Of course, it may be academic if suddenly one of the main parties latches on to new-found support and delivers a landslide -- but that's unlikely.

[jim360]

"Incidentally the Green Party may also get more votes than the SNP, but too spread out to deliver any more than the one MP they have at the moment," was what that first paragraph was meant to say.

[mikey4444]

Sandy...yes you are correct, and the Tories lost both of them. But comparisons between '74 and '15 are difficult to make. No representation from Plaid Cymru and UKIP had yet be to invented.

Its a totally new ball game now.

[mikey4444]

Jim...you are right but FPTP is what we have now, and it will decide who goes to Number Ten as it always has.

Maybe it will different in years to come but we have to play the game with the cards that we are dealt with. But I am not unsympathetic to your desire for change.

[jim360]

Agreed, it's what we're stuck with now. But the SNP favour electoral reform (specially, the Single Transferable Vote). They may well at least force the issue back into the open as part of any deals, coalition-based or otherwise.

I don't see FPTP staying unchallenged for much longer. The AV referendum appears not to have been decisive after all. Good thing too, as there is more to electoral reform than AV.

[naomi24]

//Not good news for dave.//

It doesn't sound like good news for Ed either - but let's not nit-pick.

[mushroom25]

//But comparisons between '74 and '15 are difficult to make. No representation from Plaid Cymru and UKIP had yet be to invented. //

are you saying then that the Rt Hon members for Caernarfon and Merioneth,as elected in February 1974 - plus the celebrated Gwynfor Evans who re-took his Carmarthen seat that October, are a figment of imagination???

[mikey4444]

You are quite correct Mush, poor research on my part, for which I apologise.
I am always happy to acknowledge any mistakes !

But their representation at Westminster has never amounted to very much, although it may be much more significant next week.

These are interesting times, that's for sure !

[ToraToraTora]

you keep on kidding yourself mikey, I'll wait till Friday week.