Polls Schmolls!

[ToraToraTora]

Why do we put so much store in percentages when our system is not based on percentages? I've said many times on here that the polls are irrelevant and this election has demonstrated it. Any ideas on a new sysem of predictions?

[ToraToraTora]

Even Nate Silver the US statistician was miles out!

[bazwillrun]

I dont place any reliance on them, i ignore them...its people like mikey who seem to live by them...oh dear

[VHG]

Part of the strange voting situation in the UK.

The SNP and Liberals between them have about 3.7 million votes and 64 seats, UKIP have also got 3.7 million votes and only got 1 seat.

Also the Greens have 1.1 million votes and 1 seat, the SNP 1.4 million votes and 56 seats.

This was at 09:46am.

[Gromit]

Nate Silver @ fivethirtyeight had supposedly developed a more accurate model for predicting.

But they were miles off. 50 out on the Tories. LibDem predicted seats 29, actual 8.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/

[jno]

the polls are pretty accurate most of the time; people tend to misread them, ignoring the margins for error, but only notice on the relatively few occasions they're wrong (I think Kinnock was the last time, and that was decades ago).

[ludwig]

People respond to pollsters based on how their heart wants to vote. When they actually get to the booth, the head takes over. Sometimes that doesn't result in much of a change, but in a strange situation like the one just gone where no-one could really predict what would happen, it played a big part.

People's heads were telling them that a Miliband/Sturgeon coalition had to be avoided at all costs. He may have ruled it out when he realised how damaging the prospect was, but frankly, people didn't believe him. Why would they?

[jno]

even the exit polls were way off, I notice.

[Gromit]

Jno

The BBC Exit Poll was fairly accurate. So much so that on seeing it at 11pm last night, Paddy Ashdown said he would eat his hat if it was true. He is now hatless.

[Gromit]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-scotland-32633029

[AB Editor]

Yes Gromit, that Nate Silver one was complete rubbish in the end!

Saying that, so were most of them - except about the Scottish landslide.

[Lie-in King]

Flaming polls, coming over here, taking our opinions...

[Mamyalynne]

Very good!!

[jno]

Gromit, I think the BBC exit poll gave the Tories 316? They're now saying 331.

[Peter Pedant]

yeah Natae SIlverman who was the only one to predict Obama's election did it by " medians"

that is the number in a set of number where half are above and half below the number

NOT an average by the way