Business & Finance12 mins ago
As Usual The Eu Are Playing
Hard ball.
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They will perhaps give a few ‘assurances’ but they mean nothing if not done with legal clauses.
So what next?
Remainers would prefer no Brexit. (Against the democratic result of the referendum)
Failing that the softest of soft Brexits. (Hog tie us and stopping our ability to be competitive and get trade deals of our own without representation. Taxation without representation)
Leavers would on the hole, I think, prefer no deal and just leave. (Carrying out the democratic result of the referendum)
MPs won’t countenance no deal so we are left with delay or suspend A50 indefinitely, go against the democratic vote to rescind A50 or another referendum.
By the time the government decides what to do will there be time to do anything else other than leave?
I hope they procrastinate and twiddle their thumbs long enough to run out of time. However I think there are enough people that don’t believe in the ability of the UK that they will get all the paperwork done so that it (whichever democracy crushing route they take) it can be rushed through last second.
https:/
They will perhaps give a few ‘assurances’ but they mean nothing if not done with legal clauses.
So what next?
Remainers would prefer no Brexit. (Against the democratic result of the referendum)
Failing that the softest of soft Brexits. (Hog tie us and stopping our ability to be competitive and get trade deals of our own without representation. Taxation without representation)
Leavers would on the hole, I think, prefer no deal and just leave. (Carrying out the democratic result of the referendum)
MPs won’t countenance no deal so we are left with delay or suspend A50 indefinitely, go against the democratic vote to rescind A50 or another referendum.
By the time the government decides what to do will there be time to do anything else other than leave?
I hope they procrastinate and twiddle their thumbs long enough to run out of time. However I think there are enough people that don’t believe in the ability of the UK that they will get all the paperwork done so that it (whichever democracy crushing route they take) it can be rushed through last second.
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Parliament now needs to formally vote on May's deal so they can reject it. That will then give May two options:
1) Chance to call a snap referendum- go to the people and say, the choice is yours, my deal (rejected by MP's) or No deal, which do you want?
2) What will probably happen, she will say, I have done everything I can, but the No Deal choice has been made by Parliament rejecting my deal- meaning that we leave with No Deal.
There are plenty of other scenarios, but I reckon option 2) is what will happen given the current situation.
1) Chance to call a snap referendum- go to the people and say, the choice is yours, my deal (rejected by MP's) or No deal, which do you want?
2) What will probably happen, she will say, I have done everything I can, but the No Deal choice has been made by Parliament rejecting my deal- meaning that we leave with No Deal.
There are plenty of other scenarios, but I reckon option 2) is what will happen given the current situation.
My prediction also, is that when "her" deal is rejected by Parliament, that will be the moment that Labour and the SNP will do all they can to put pressure on the government to call an election, probably in the form of a vote of no confidence, which will open us up not only to further chaos and uncertainty, but the possibility of a Corbyn government... Whatever happens, the leaving date of 29th March next year is not the date anything is solved, but the date when the chaos will increase dramatically as the action practical issues of Brexit become unignorable. At very best we have years of political turmoil ahead due to this decision to leave the EU. We have a country completely divided, a parliament divided, a government divided, and the ensuing fallout from all of this is that our economy will suffer due to the uncertainty, and the people least able to afford it will be left to pick up the tab. I find it all quite sad, as in an ideal world I would have loved Brexit to be the time where we "cut our ties from bureaucracy" (it will mean more bureaucracy); where we made a clean break from the EU (whatever scenario happens, the break will not be clean), and we became more prosperous (no-one is now saying we will be better off as a result). My prediction for 2019 (and I have my optimistic hat on here) is that there will be a major crisis in government, followed by huge demonstrations and riots, more disenfranchised public will drift to the extreme left and right, and that Nigel Farage will become leader of a new political party in an attempt to make political capital out of it somehow :) Please, may I be proved wrong!
I don’t think parliament will allow no deal. Even though it is the one voted for in the referendum.
They will suspend or revoke A50 with the duplicitous words of ‘it’s a mess and we need more time’ bull crap.
No we don’t need more time. We need to get out and then sort our house in order to grow.
As with any change, especially when you haven’t bothered to plan properly, it can be difficult. But that doesn’t mean you don’t embrace and work the change to your advantage.
They will suspend or revoke A50 with the duplicitous words of ‘it’s a mess and we need more time’ bull crap.
No we don’t need more time. We need to get out and then sort our house in order to grow.
As with any change, especially when you haven’t bothered to plan properly, it can be difficult. But that doesn’t mean you don’t embrace and work the change to your advantage.
Mays problem is that no one trusts her with Brexit.
Leaving now may well be tricky initially but that is really down to just a few things. 1. Not enough preperation for no deal so people are frightened by all the doom and gloom merchants. (although David Davis on QT last night said there has been quite a lot done ((it should have been made more widely available then)) and would be out soon) 2. Change, any change is open to difficulties. (But difficulties shouldn’t stop you seeing, striving and actually going for the bigger prize).
The EU won’t give assurances on the NI backstop because they intend to use it. If it looks like a trap, smells like a trap and has trap written all over it, the chances are it’s a trap.
I think she should step back totally from Brexit and give it wholesale to someone else. JRM would be good or any committed Brexiteer would do.
However at the end of the day parliament don’t want no deal so we are stuck with the EU for ever.
Leaving now may well be tricky initially but that is really down to just a few things. 1. Not enough preperation for no deal so people are frightened by all the doom and gloom merchants. (although David Davis on QT last night said there has been quite a lot done ((it should have been made more widely available then)) and would be out soon) 2. Change, any change is open to difficulties. (But difficulties shouldn’t stop you seeing, striving and actually going for the bigger prize).
The EU won’t give assurances on the NI backstop because they intend to use it. If it looks like a trap, smells like a trap and has trap written all over it, the chances are it’s a trap.
I think she should step back totally from Brexit and give it wholesale to someone else. JRM would be good or any committed Brexiteer would do.
However at the end of the day parliament don’t want no deal so we are stuck with the EU for ever.
//a snap referendum//
no such thing. the legal process governing referendums means there's no way one can happen in less than 22 weeks (and only then if some of the necessary admin runs concurrently). this will require A50 to be deferred, which itself requires all 27 EU states to agree to it. (no, this week's court case did not overturn that).
no such thing. the legal process governing referendums means there's no way one can happen in less than 22 weeks (and only then if some of the necessary admin runs concurrently). this will require A50 to be deferred, which itself requires all 27 EU states to agree to it. (no, this week's court case did not overturn that).
"Hard ball" seems a bit of an OTT description. It's hard to see how they could make substantial changes to it now even with all the goodwill in the world.
The EU have been very consistent about what their priorities were since the beginning: integrity of the SM, indivisibility of the four freedoms. I understand those are not popular things in the UK at the moment, but regardless of your personal opinion on those things their stance makes sense given what their priorities are. As has been pointed out elsewhere, they have already compromised on some of those to secure the backstop.
When this first started, I recall hearing predictions that 27 countries would suffer from crippling indecision versus the unified stance of one country - bafflingly, the opposite has happened.
The EU have been very consistent about what their priorities were since the beginning: integrity of the SM, indivisibility of the four freedoms. I understand those are not popular things in the UK at the moment, but regardless of your personal opinion on those things their stance makes sense given what their priorities are. As has been pointed out elsewhere, they have already compromised on some of those to secure the backstop.
When this first started, I recall hearing predictions that 27 countries would suffer from crippling indecision versus the unified stance of one country - bafflingly, the opposite has happened.
i know the government has already made a lot of provisions. I don;t know what all the issues are but I do know that the much vaunted doomsday scenarios are in neither sides interests. Thus necessity being the mother of invention, they will quickly get sorted. The EU exports £80bn of goods to us, they wont want a pile of duty on that and more than we want it on our exports. Once the hysterical politicking is out of the way, business will find a way and it will get sorted.
I think it will be firefighting because not enough prepers for no deal have been done.
Just like the referendum when the establishment thought we couldn’t possibly vote how they didn’t want us to and they didn’t plan for leave, no full and proper prep seems to have been done for no deal. Therefore fire fight the governments mess.
Just like the referendum when the establishment thought we couldn’t possibly vote how they didn’t want us to and they didn’t plan for leave, no full and proper prep seems to have been done for no deal. Therefore fire fight the governments mess.
