Are the Tories falling apart - Again?

[Gromit]

Europe spokesman Graham Brady resigned from the party's front bench yesterday and three more Tory spokesmen could quit over Grammar schools row.

Last night, a poll found that voters now believe that the Tories are looking more disunited than Labour, with only 37 per cent saying that Mr Cameron could keep his MPs under control - compared with 40 per cent for Gordon Brown.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles /news/news.html?in_article_id=458300&in_page_i d=1770

Suddenly the Conservatives have imploded. With no effective opposition, is a Labour victory at the next election a foregone conclusion?

[NJOK]

They have an open goal but I have a feeling they'll fluff it.

I think Gordon Brown will stake his claim as an different leader to Blair. He's seen as a safe pair of hands and people trust him to run the economy, but I think his perceived grumpiness will make him seem strong and serious. Amazing how fickle the public can be.

The Tories were always going to come unstuck once they started discussing policy. In the same way that Blair had to bite the bullet and move away from old Labour, Cameron is ham-strung by the fact that the Tories are still the party of the old school right. And while he's doing his best to make the party seem more moderate and centre-right, the fact is that the party at large doesn't want that.

It is dominated by old school, blue-rinse WI members, fox hunting land owners and braying Nice-but-Dims - they want low taxes, unquestioning tradition and a hardline on hoodies, immigrants and the EU. If he can convert, soften or ditch them, he has a chance of claiming the middle ground and appearing electable.

But, as this grammar school row is showing, party members aren't willing to go with him.

It'll still be close, though.

[jake-the-peg]

the biggie is Europe.

If he can string together a policy that unites the Tories over that and stops a mass defection to UKIP then I think he'll win.

But it's defeated most Tory leaders for 20 years.

That is always assuming he gets to stay leader long enough to get a shot at an election - remember IDS got knifed before he could step up to the plate.

Lib Dems could well do with taking a leaf out of that book

I agree with NJOK though it could shape up to be the closest election in years

[Kromovaracun]

I don't think the Tories are quite falling apart, though they're certainly as divided as they've ever been. The real problem as I see it as that Cameron has no distinct policy whatsoever - he appears to be campaigning on soundbytes and desperately trying to appeal to everyone at once. Fortunately people seem to be beginning to see through him.

I'd say a Labour victory is very probable in the next election (in fact nigh-on definite if they're up against Cameron). Particularly as Brown is appealing more to the left of the party, and maybe - just maybe - might win back some of Labour's traditional voters, whilst plenty of 'New Labour' supporters will still be happy with him as they realise he's been effectively running the economy for the last 10 years.

I think it's a little difficult to make predictions on future general elections, as unforeseen events can be incredibly decisive in changing party popularity. But if there was a general election after Brown becomes PM, I'd say it'd be a close one, but Labour would pretty confidently still get it.

[jonnythebosh]

I think that we should be amazed that an MP has had the decency to resign over a point of principle, an MP with morals , whatever next? If the Tories go back to being Conservatives with a capital C, instead of trying to emulate this pathetic shower government then the next election will not even be close. They will walk it.

[whiffey]

I think Britain is sleepwalking into self-destruction and it matters not whether the Tories (?) or Labour preside. For example, public schools and grammar schools have contributed incalculably to the welfare of this nation and its culture and security. So what better politically correct idea than to undermine and destory them ?

Personally I think the Tories (?) will get in next time, but it won't make a jot of difference to the downward slide. Here's another goodie - a police think-tank is playing around with the idea that shoplifters who pledge to be good in future will be let off the (paltry) �80 fine. 10 years' time ? - I'm really really sorry I shot him - Oh alright, off you go then, it's a social deprivation thing, don't do it again.

[jno]

johnnythebosh, I think he jumped before he was pushed. I'm with Kromovaracun, I think Cameron has got as far as he has on hot air alone - on looking identical to Blair only not having been caught out in any big lies yet. As elections approach and he has to start being specific he's going to find himself at war with party members, and going to have to make promises he will have trouble keeping. The public will of course elect whoever promises the most expensive services while claiming it won't cost anything, which is why politicians have to lie about it.

[Oakleaf51]

I think that the tories made the wrong decision not electing David Davies as leader. Had they done so, I'm sure they would have already presented alternative and viable policies that would strike a chord with the voters. The paper man they did elect however, is too keen on his own personal image and is making a hash of that.
Come back Screaming Lord Sutch!

[jno]

ah, I see Cameron's appointed a new Director of Communications (ie spin doctor): the former editor of the News of the World. The one who had to resign because his reporter was bugging the royal family's phones. What a masterstroke! His own Alistair Campbell!