Coronavirus Questions

[allenlondon]

Call me suspicious, but I don't think we're getting the full story on coronavirus...

My interest: I'm elderly and 'at risk' (various ailments).

My suspicions are based on this. If the virus really does run its course in a week or so in non-at risk people (younger, fitter, etc)., then it ain't much worse than an average dose of flu. In fact, a dose of flu can be far more debilitating than just staying in bed for a week.

Similarly, the 'at risk' groups (me and those like me) are always at high risk when flu takes a hold - it kills old/ill people.

So why wasn't coronavirus described more accurately when it first spread into Europe, and into the UK? If it had been called 'like a dose of flu', would there have been panics, stock-market crashes, empty supermarket shelves?

Is it just one more government cock up, or is it more sinister?

I'd like to hear your views.

Allen, old, and still fairly well.

[fiction-factory]

Do you think all the governments, and all the medical professionals advising them, are cocking it up or are they all in it together with some sinister plot?

[fiction-factory]

You haven't mentioned that we have vaccines for flu but not for Covid

[ichkeria]

It isn’t “like a dose of flu”
It’s true most people won’t become seriously ill, but it’s a new thing that no one is immune to and at its worst is likely to put the health services under unmanageable strain.
As I understand it, our countermeasures are designed to extend the peak period of infectious but stop that peak rising to “unmanageable” heights.

[chelle7272]

it isn't 'like a dose of flu' though. It has a higher fatality rate, there is no vaccine or treatment, and this will put a huge strain on health services. Measures do need to be taken as if a large percentage of the workforce is unable to work, we won't have the necessary supplies and services available.

[allenlondon]

At the beginning of the epidemic, there were a few medical voices heard on BBC News advising people not to worry, and that a period in bed with the usual (paracetamols and hot-water bottles) would probably suffice.

Their wise words were swiftly replaced by others who were more 'newsworthy', i.e who spoke of 'panic', of 'outbreaks', who described every increase in coronavirus cases as an 'upsurge' rather than a simple increase.

Too late now, we are 'all' alarmed. Government and medical cock up? Probably not. Just part of the media-driven hysteria so typical of this age.

A

[chelle7272]

Sigh.

[TheDevil]

"Is it just one more government cock up"
We're doing better than Italy but then again we cover out infected coughs with our elbows or at least our hands. They only use three fingers.

[Ryzen]

Most over 60's are considered ..by this government..to be .."at risk" "vulnerable" "elderly"....but still have to work till 66 or more!!

[fiction-factory]

We don't have to work to 66, ryzen. Some need to, maybe through misfortune or bad planning. But lots of people retire earlier and live off private pensions and savings or downsize.

[jazzyjen]

According to this website

“worldometers.info/coronavirus “ In Italy the death rate is 1 in 15.

[TheDevil]

"“worldometers.info/coronavirus “ In Italy the death rate is 1 in 15."

cus they're all old smokers who only use three fingers to cover their mouths.

https://image.shutterstock.com/image-photo/fingers-together-hand-gesture-260nw-766195432.jpg

[Peter Pedant]

I dont think I understand this question

I used to work at Porton Down so I shd be able to cover dangerous pathogens ( nasty nasty killing bugs) but I dont understand the thread of the argument

My local Lidl has bog rolls so it cant be an epidemic
is clearly a non sequitur

The reporting at the Been has been low standard
but that is because the average Beeb hack does not do
micro, path, epidemiology or maff modelling

they do fings like meedja and sociology

you are not the only one to point out the hacks at the beeb often sound as tho they dont know what they are talking about

they dont

this is not a conspiracy ( the brits dont do conspiracies like the americans do)
' in a good going cack up, no one should underestimate the role of sheer incompetence' - some General in the British Army

[Peter Pedant]

// "Is it just one more government cock up"
We're doing better than Italy //

italy will stand out as a country of DEAAAAAATH ! and much ink will be spilt on why they did so badly compared to china

and the reasons in a various order will be
a. quality of info was better in Italy so they told it like it was and not like a party apparatchik and official wanted it to be
b.more old, and the overall the death rate was not raised but concentrated in the over 60 y cohort ( NB it is 14% in over 60s in UK at present)
c. they didnt smooth out the sharp curve and facilities were overwhelmed which need not have happened if the cases had been spaced out
d.they admitted more to hospital than they needed to and then forgot about them and they croaked in various unmanned corners
e.the emergency did nt allow them to triage efficiently - identify those who were gonna die inevitably and let them
f.didnt realise that there are some things you can do which dont work in certain categories (see e) so dont spend time doing it and failing

and er that is about it

[Peter Pedant]

// there were a few medical voices heard on BBC News advising people not to worry,//

this I think was john norman from oxford - specifically that corona was not an epidemic flu virus and so there wouldnt be an epidemic

I emailed the Beeb on this - arguing that getting medical advice Wrong and people ( and sick little babies) died so it wasnt really a meedja fest where everyone had a view and they should be heard and accorded equal honours

there was instead a right and a wrong and the way you decided ( 'the metric') was how many you buried. I entitled this - "the Beeb as Baby Killers" just to give them a tastette of what adverse propaganda may be like

The rabid marxist hackettes may still be going after govt ministers on political grounds ( they dont like Tories but like corbynistas) -
but they have to filter / take into account that the advice may be right ( optimise survival ) even tho they dont like the head saying it
and the loyal marxist right-on articulate woke corbynista may be misleading himself and the listener

or not ( thx to Mystic Meg)

[allenlondon]

Peter Pedant. Always enjoyable, always provocative. Agreed that what we need is science, not blather.

Love, Allen (a Marxist, of course)

[woofgang]

Allen what we have is science.

[douglas9401]

We'll never know 'the truth', only a version that blames no-one and,of course, lessons will be learned.

Meanwhile in a market/laboratory/disgruntled ex employee's bedroom.......

[Peter Pedant]

//We'll never know 'the truth', only a version that blames no-one and,of course, lessons will be learned.//
yes ! no!
what is troot ( Jn 18 38 - god I shd know this by now)
ebola was a version that blamed poor blameless Dr Ryan (who did NOT forge that temperature chart but was accused at the GMC by people who knew she had not)
GMC announced today that so long as you treated patients in the best passible taste you wouldnt be proceeded against. Egged on doubtless, by the Great and Good who will be at the coal face. They didnt mind shogging Ryan but wont put up with it when it comes to their own careers being screwed. - so people and doctors DO learn - so long as it concerns their own career

Meanwhile in a market/laboratory/disgruntled ex employee's bedroom......unbridled sex and sado-masochism will go on !
( sorry I have lapsed into Mills and Boon speak) - Quick said caroline breathlessly, I love that burette when you wear it between your legs .....[give me 5 mls from it - now! ] and dont forget the cotton wool !

[Buenchico]

As you say, for the vast majority of people, contracting Covid-19 will be no worse than a mild dose of flu.

However
(a) the mortality rate for Covid-19 is much higher than for flu. About 0.1% of people worldwide die of season flu. In the UK it looks like the mortality rate might be about 1.7% but in Italy it's 6.7% ;
(b) the transmission rate for Covid-19 appears to be far higher than for seasonal flu, meaning that your risk of catching it in a crowd of people (with some of them carrying the infection) is far higher than it would be of catching seasonal flu in the same crowd (if the same number of people were already infected).

That's why Covid-19 has set alarm bells ringing among health official and politicians.

[Buenchico]

^^^ I worded a sentence badly above:
"About 0.1% of people worldwide die of season flu" should have read "About 0.1% of people who contract seasonal seasonal flu die from the disease".

The main substance of my post remains unchanged though.