Where Are People Catching Covid-19 From?

[AuntPollyGrey]

The UK has now been in lockdown nearly five weeks, longer than it takes an individual to catch CV-19 and show signs, therefore the hundreds of new cases admitted yesterday into hospital and the 813 people who died in hospital yesterday must have caught the virus after the lockdown -or did they? Where are people catching the virus? In supermarkets? From delivered shopping? Post? Why is the Government not researching where people are catching the virus from now we are in lockdown.?

[mushroom25]

// the 813 people who died in hospital yesterday must have caught the virus after the lockdown //

according to a friend's daughter who works in an ITU department somewhere in the home counties (I won't reveal where), average time from becoming ill to hospital bed is 10 days, and from hospital bed to body bag is another 20. if we assume incubation to be up to 14 days, those dying now were infected before the lockdown, and we've a while to go before we'll see any effect of the lockdown on death rates.

[Zacs-Master]

I don’t think you can sterilise everything coming into your home, APG short of wiping everything down with alcohol rub, which would be pretty expensive.

[aelmpvw]

as an optimist i feel that if it's possible to contract it from deliveries it would be such a small dose that would just make you feel ill, not kill you

[woofgang]

mushroom that is exactly what was said on the briefing...approx 2 week lag from the hospital admission data to the deaths in hospital data

[woofgang]

ZM I don't think even that would sterlise although it might disinfect...and certain items like paper bags of sugar whould not be disinfectable in this way.

[woofgang]

ael I am not sure about that...whether a bigger dose of the virus results in a worse infection.

[andres]

Some people might be carriers of the disease but not get it themselves.
We don' t know enough about this virus yet. It might thrive in hot weather. It could travel further than the 2 metres that we have been told.
You could be negative at the time of testing go back to work but catch it the day after. If you test positive then you are asked to give a list of contacts .

[pixie374]

I'm sure it travels more than 2m. Even a cold can spread 5m from one sneeze in one second.

[ladybirder]

APG I wipe my grocery deliveries with Dettol wipes as best I can. Anything that doesn't need to go straight into the fridge or freezer stays in the carrier bag for 72 hours before I put the stuff away in a cupboard. I'm washing my hands all the time I'm doing this as the driver will have carried the bags to my door. All carrier bags get slung in a cupboard, for 72 hours, until they are safe to roll up and put away. Parcels and letters that arrive are left 72 hours before I open them.
It's an absolute pain and I hope I'm doing enough.

[pixie374]

I've also seen a few times, that even after recovery, it is still contagious for up to 15 days - after the symptoms have gone- which is really unusual.

[tiggerblue10]

There are still many who are flouting the rules so that could be one possibility to newer cases testing positive and also as suggested, that the ramp up of testing is identifying these cases among key workers.

And time lag as Mushroom states. When the lockdown was announced the weather that weekend was hot and many people were out and about. A Prof. on the Andrew Marr show this morning suggested that 3-10% of the population may already have been infected.

[ichkeria]

Well I think it def travels further than 2 metres if coughed or sneezed.
Other than that it shouldn’t.
Nor should it survive longer out of doors. Until we have more people actually catching it and being traced then a lot of things will remain uncertain.

[AuntPollyGrey]

Mushroom that is very interesting information, I had no idea some people were in ICU for weeks.
The problem is we will never know if lockdown is working as we will never know how many deaths there would have been without it.

[bednobs]

as someone who had it, where do you think you got it from APG?

[bednobs]

my neighbours have jut been isolated with (presumed) covid. Their little boy broke his finger and they had to take him to the ED, and that's where they got it

[jim360]

I don't think there's any doubt that the virus can travel more than 2m in air, although 2m is presumably considered about the right distance to minimise exposure risk. Short of someone deliberately coughing in your direction, at least.

Also, whilst I agree that the risk of transmission via packages, etc, isn't known and could be higher, it should probably be sufficient to wash your hands thoroughly immediately on or after handling said package.

The main source of continued transmission is probably because the lockdown isn't being enforced and isn't total. The Government anticipated that compliance wouldn't be 100%, and as long as it's not then there are bound to be still some transmission routes. Compare with Wuhan. Although I don't mean to take the Chinese figures too literally, what is certainly true is that there the lockdown was near-total. No public transport was available, nobody could leave the city, nobody could leave their homes, shopping was delivery only, and so on.

As long as people are expected to adhere to the measures themselves then there remains a risk of transmission, albeit a severely reduced risk. We have, at least, managed to exit the exponential growth region.

[andres]

I am going out for some'fresh air'. What fresh air? With millions of people all over the world breathing this virus out that's a misnomer.

[Zacs-Master]

There’s also a growing body of thought that you do not have immunity once you’ve had it.

[AuntPollyGrey]

Good question bednobs, one I've been asking almost everyday and racking my brains. Before I showed symptoms I'd been self isolating for 10 days. Hence the question rally.

[pixie374]

They said that right at the beginning, zacs. Though Jim said unlikely.