Should The Government Be Concentrating On Covid Anti-Body Testing?

[AuntPollyGrey]

Would it be more useful to know who had recovered from the virus without any hospitalisation, of even without symptoms rather than who has got it now?.

Someone presenting for a routine test because they are a Key worker could test negative, and then catch it in a couple of days time. What is the point of that?

At least if you know you have had it you may be immune......or is that the problem? The scientists have no idea if you can catch the virus again once you have had it?

[10ClarionSt]

That's all very informative, prof, but is your reply based on the current outbreak, or a study of other infections which may be relevant to the situation now? I don't pretend to know about testing/studies but it seems to me that nobody knows what to do just now, especially Boris the Black Knight, who is just telling everyone to keep out of each others' way.

[theprof]

Jim360, the research is going well and I'm reasonably pleased with progress. I've taken a small first-class team with me to the research facility I've been working at over the last few weeks and using the uni facilities as well.

One or two or my team are totally in awe of what the inside of a high-security pathogen laboratory complex looks like despite telling me beforehand that they'd love to work in such an environment. All the same, the regular staff have treated them with nothing but kindness. All the same, yesterday afternoon I had to wag my finger at one of my staff as she summoned me by my military rank. Technical discussions are now done via Zoom and I love it.

[woofgang]

10 Clarion, I think there is a seed of truth in what you say. The briefing attenders seem to be quite honest in saying "we think this" "in other viral pandemics we have seen xxx" "we are beginning to see evidence of yyy" but they are being honest and up front. The whole reason for the lockdown/social distancing and so on is BECAUSE they don't know. The intention is to keep as many people as possible as safe as possible while experts around the globe find out!

[theprof]

10ClarionSt, my replies refer to the current outbreak. It is true that some aspects of research into Covid19 are based upon earlier SARS research due to some similarities between Covid19 and the earlier coronaviruses. It was a starting point as far as research was concerned and did put us ahead to some extent in research into Covid19. There are differences in spike glucoproteins and other stuff with this particular coronavirus as expected but we're getting there.

I know in many respects that asking people to avoid each other seems a very simplistic method of dealing with this pathogen and I appreciate it's very difficult to see the benefit sometimes. All the same, I will say that this isolation works and we are seeing light at the end of the tunnel. We've kept an eye on what other countries were doing before it reached our shores and undoubtedly, isolation has limited the spread of the disease in many of these countries. It was inevitable we would follow to give us the breathing space to come up with a vaccine to put an end to this pandemic. It really is working, I can assure you and I'm confident we'll beat his virus one day soon.

Sorry for sounding like a politician who should be behind one of those podiums on a daily basis, but it is my honest opinion and I dont know how else to put it.

[fiction-factory]

Your input is appreciated, theprof. Your posts pretty much match what I instinctively feel and what I've concluded but it's good to hear it from someone who is working in the field and knows much more about the science. I really appreciate the input of some others on here on Covid, particularly jim360 but also PP who makes you think differently about things sometimes

[jim360]

There's a clear hierarchy on Covid posts on AB. I don't know where I come on that but theprof is clearly way ahead of everybody else in understanding this. Hard to beat someone who's on the front line in active research.

[tiggerblue10]

Is it also the case that those who are asymptomatic do not produce antibodies? Or did I miss that bit in the posts above? Sorry if I have.

[Zacs-Master]

Please stick around, prof. You could stop many a thread going awry!

[theprof]

Thank you all and I'm very grateful for your kind comments. There is much misinformation knocking around concerning Covid19 and I'll certainly stick around to clarify matters as necessary.

I'm staying on site overnight tonight. I've stayed in worse four star hotels to be honest.

[jim360]

// There is much misinformation knocking around concerning Covid19 ... //

Oh, you'd noticed? :P

[brainiac]

If you want to read something interesting and informed about coronavirus, read the two pages by MD in the latest Private Eye - always talks sense, and you'll find out things you haven't heard before.

[theprof]

Tiggerblue10, sorry for the late reply. You've asked a very interesting question with a complex answer.

Fudan university in China conducted an antibody check on 175 patients who had recovered from Covid19 and were effectively asymptomatic. Curiously, they discovered that 10 of those patients had no antibodies present. Right now, no one knows why this was so although 9 out of the ten patients were aged 40 or under. Suggestions have included a fluke in testing procedures, false positives in laboratory PCR results for reasons unknown, contaminated laboratory reagents, poorly trained staff or even the fact that the patients may have had a similar infection to Covid19, such as one of the many atypical pneumonia's. It is also possible that MERS infection was present.

There are other studies with similar and contradictory results that are coming through in academic papers from other parts of the world but nothing is certain. There is also a degree of scepticism over any Chinese research or case studies in recent weeks for varying reasons and I'm afraid the scientific community is fast developing some doubt about information that comes out of the region.

So all in all to answer your question, no one really knows. I've read the original paper but summarised versions are all over the internet if you care to take a look yourself.

[theprof]

Jim360, only too well I'm sorry to say and that includes both academia and the public domain.

Earlier today mrsprof phoned me to say our nearest neighbour had asked how long she should hang a padded envelope in the sunlight in her conservatory to be certain that all the Covid19 had perished before opening the package.

[Bazile]

How long then , prof ?

[Spicerack]

theprof
//I'm staying on site overnight tonight. I've stayed in worse four star hotels to be honest.//

Don't get up in the middle of the night for a drink from the fridge.
We could use an apolitical arbiter around here.

[tiggerblue10]

Thanks TheProf, that's very interesting.

I read somewhere that antibodies are usually produced where a person has had to fight the virus and recovered. What do you think about plasma treatment and the success rate with this? When do you think this treatment will be measured statistically?

Thank you

[douglas9401]

"how long she should hang a padded envelope in the sunlight in her conservatory to be certain that all the Covid19 had perished before opening the package"

Just a Jiffy.

[Theland]

Surely some other countries are models to follow?
Eg South Korea?

[woofgang]

Just a comment that springs to mind but I don't think that the government should be concentrating on any one aspect of this situation. Its like plate spinning, they need to keep all the plates going and not focus one one.

[naomi24]

theprof. Knowledgeable and informative as always. I remember you helped me years ago when I was worried about hospital acquired infections. Thank you so much for your input here. Your expertise is very much appreciated.