If Russia Escalates Its War In Ukraine

[ichkeria]

President Biden has warned of a “heavy price” to be paid by Russia if it uses chemical or biological weapons.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/03/11/politics/joe-biden-warning-chemical-weapons/index.html

Assuming that direct NATO military involvement is still ruled out, what do you think the options could or would or should be to exact such a price?

[jno]

beats me, to be honest. There's been a lot of fighting talk, but short of military action it's hard to see that they can do anything except more of the same. Any ideas?

[ichkeria]

Well the sanctions can go further.
Total SWIFT ban and a boycott of all oil and gas.
Those are “non-nuclear” nuclear options and might not be possible but in theory there is a lot more pain that can be inflicted.

[jim360]

How sustainable would non-intervention be in the case of documented, verifiable escalation? Consider, for example, the scenario where Russians fire (tactical) nuclear weapons on major cities. I just don't see how you can rely on further economic pressure in that regard. Possibly the exception is if China/India and others then abandon Putin in that instance, but beyond that I don't see how you couldn't advocate for a no-fly zone at a minimum in that scenario.

I am sure that Nato leaders are considering military options despite their repeated insistence that they won't intervene in that way. This seems correct, for now -- any escalation from Nato's side can only be in response to further aggression from Russia -- but I would assume that there are some red lines, and I suspect that nuclear or even chemical weapons could be one.

[jno]

could be, but I note that the UK decision to give up Russian gas (should it ever come to pass, which I wouldn't bet on) was timed for completion at the end of the year, so it was never expected to be quick and severe. I wouldn't object if they enforced it tomorrow, but the chances of that are pretty much nil.

Swift ban maybe, I haven't kept up with that.

[sanmac]

Slightly off-topic, but yesterday the Canadian PM mentioned during a press-conference more than once that Putin has lost this "illegal war" Now I realize that Trudeau is a bit of a pipsqueak on the world stage, but do you think it's wise for any Western leader to blatantly goad the obviously unhinged Putin in this fashion?

[jno]

if you think so lowly of Trudeau, why would Putin think any more highly?

[sanmac]

I did have that in mind, jno, that's why I asked about the wisdom of other Western leaders making similar comments.

[ichkeria]

For heavens sake are we really that scared of Putin?

[bednobs]

given russia's very close proximity to canada, perhaps he is doing the right thing?

[bednobs]

ps, yes! somone who on the face of it is mentally unstable in charge of nuclear weapons?

[sandra4444]

I would think the best we can do at the moment is to play the Russians at their own game. By this I mean lie and deny.

We could get involved in many ways, in a bigger way.
Ukraine are already using weapons supplied by many countries, how are the Russians to know who is firing at them especially with drones.

Sooner or later we have to get involved, the other option is to sit back and watch the slaughter. How long can we endure the latter.

We just keep denying any other troops other than Ukrainians are fighting.

[jno]

perhaps EU action against Air Serbia?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/11/wealthy-russians-using-air-serbia-loophole-to-avoid-eu-flights-ban

Not really relevant to the US but if Russians are using it to fly on to Britain, is anything being done about it here?

[youngmafbog]

For goodness sake stop with the mentally unstable/mad vlad rubbish.

The man is a very dangerous and evil megalomaniac. If you dont start to understand him you will never beat him.

Before any military action the way to deal with it would be making Russia a total pariah state as far as the West is concerned. We can also make noises in India and China's direction that we will start to look elsewhere for their goods too if they insist on funding him by trading.

Whilst this may not stop him and boots on the ground have to come to play by first weakening him financially he wont have the money to pay for equipment or troops. If he stops paying the contract soldiers they will either turn on him or just flee.

It's the long game I'm afraid, no amount of sabre ratting will change it. Even if he takes Ukraine cities I doubt he will take Ukraine. It's a pretty big country and guerrilla warfare would be very costly to Putin both politically and financially.

[Zacs-Master]

Could you explain the difference between ‘mentally unstable’ and ‘megalomaniac’? Isn’t the former just a colloquialism for the latter?

[Khandro]

Having read about Putin's absolute paranoia & the amount of personal security he surrounds himself with, I think a palace-coup is a very remote possibility.

Perhaps a Siberian Shaman can remotely cast a spell on the swine.

Having gone from a moderately tolerated figure to the most hated man on the planet in the matter of just three weeks, perhaps all that combined negative energy will lead to his undoing.

[douglas9401]

Is there ever really going to be a chance for somebody to strike at Putin personally, given how deep he's hidden in that massive closet?

[royfromaus]

Maybe he will threaten them with a red line?

[douglas9401]

Or escalate to 'red line in the sand'.

[ichkeria]

Personally I’m in favour of direct NATO involvement

[royfromaus]

^ same

We are essentially, procrastinating whilst people are being murdered.
He won't stop, so why wait?