Is Europe set for a long slow decline?

[VHG]

I was reading the question from Bobbisox below about foreign workers coming here and working for less than the local people as the local people can claim more benefits so dont need to work.

Also reading in the paper yesterday about Greece having trouble sorting out its financial problems with well paid civil servants refusing to make any changes to their salary and perks or retirement age, and generally having huge tax evasion in the country.

Other European countries like Ireland, Portugal, Spain are all having major financial problems.

And even the countries that are not having these type of problems have been hit by the worldwide recession, with rising unemployment, government cuts and so on.

And almost all countries in Europe have other problems like an ageing population, pension black holes, spiraling benefit costs, much unwanted and illegal immigration and so on.

And of course the spiraling cost of the EU that cannot be maintained.

And it got me wondering are we like the old Roman Empire that just became too big, too bloated, too lazy and too corrupt to continue and eventually imploded on itself.

I am not saying it will happen in the next few years, maybe not for a few decades, but eventually the train will hit the buffers, the EU will collapse, all European countries will finish up with major financial problems, and Europe will never be the same again.

[murraymints]

we are dooooomed....all doooooomed !!!

[Bobbisox]

I think Greece were going to ask for an opt out VHG?
wonder if that's after they get another loan from the IMF?

[DrFilth]

well it looks like we will not make as much as we wanted from the loan to ireland

http://www.guardian.c...t-terms-interest-rate

[McMouse]

I don't think Europe is set for a long slow decline but some EU member states may have to come out of the Euro in order to remain viable. The major economies such as UK, Germany, France etc will grow and prosper.

[dave50]

The main problem is the current levels of welfare, health and pensions are unsustainable. We can no longer afford to look after every waif and stray who falls on hard times I'm afraid.

[ixion]

America carries much more debt than Europe and has previously been assumed to be too big to fail.....thats where the next big crash will start

[Gromit]

Wishful thinking VHG.

If anything it is too small, we may have to accepted the ascession of more countries.

[josadler7]

Truth is the West is on a long decline that diametrically opposes the rise of China, India etc. As their living standards increase ours will drop since the world runs on oil and people need food. The future will not be bleak for all however since knowledge based occupations will increase in value due to demand, i.e. engineering, technology…. There could be game changer (say alternative to fossil fuels) from the West though so who knows?

[Gromit]

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[Prudie]

From a purely selfish viewpoint if it's going to happen I wish it would and bring the Euro exchange rate down!

[BayBoy1]

PRUDIE WHY ???

[ubasses]

Never could see how the euro would work for such a big community. These countries cannot devalue and cannot control their own interest rates which could solve some of their propblems

[Cowtipper]

We're paying forty cents of every dollar of tax on interest. They keep raising the debt limit to borrow more money. Wait till we default on our Treasury bonds and look at the fallout. Our housing market crash was felt around the world from what the news tells us. I can't imagine what defaulting on the dollar will do.

[New Judge]

I imagine, BayBoy, that, like me, she travels to Europe from time to time and has seen the value of her Pound which she uses to buy Euros fall by about 25% over the past couple of years.

In the past countries that have hit financial difficulties (such as Greece, Portugal and others) have been able to devalue their currncy to attract investment and tourism. Because of the flawed nature of the Euro ("One size fits all") they cannot now do so. The UK would have been in similar straits had we joined the ridiculous single currency so although we are subject to a devalued pound, at least Sterling is adjustable to suit prevailing circumstances.

[kinell]

the noticable problem is two-fold...

there has not been a decent world war or plague for too many years

[Prudie]

Yes new judge, you are spot on. It's not completely selfish, countries like Spain and Greece have suffered considerably in tourist input from the UK since the euro remianed so high against the pound. I'm the first to admit I don't understand how it works but is it because Germany, for example, are so financially strong that the others suffer the euro not being able to devalue?

[mike11111]

For "Old Roman Empire" read "European Union". Enough said.

[New Judge]

Spot on, Prudie.

The European single currency will never work properly because of the disparate nature of the economies of the various members. As a result the value of the Euro and other things such as interest rates can only suit some of them. Because of the strength of their economies and their domination of all matters European, Germany and France ensure that the conditions suit them. The downside for them (particularly Germany) is that, if they insist on the Euro surviving in its current form, they will continually have to bale out the smaller nations. There are rumblings in Germany about this and my view is that the Euro will not survive in its current guise for more than another year or two.

[BayBoy1]

sorry I thought it was the British £ that was weak ,not the Euro ??

[New Judge]

Who said otherwise, Bayboy?