How Will The Eu Vote Go?

[EDDIE51]

We have lots of posts from the 'leave' and the 'stay' sides on AB but how despite your own convictions do you really believe the vote will go?
I am firmly in the 'stay' camp and I think the 'stay'vote will be around 55% , what do the rest of you think?
I do NOT mean your own view but what you think will actually happen at the referendum.

[bednobs]

i disagree that there are loads of posts from both sides! I seem to only see the leave ones.
Anyway, i think it's hard to call, nd will depend largely on what is going on in the world on the day of the vote. If something like brissells happens they day before, more people will vote out. If DC had done his tax stuff the day before, it would influence the vote.

[Jackdaw33]

I can't honestly see the STAY camp winning. My guess would be 55% LEAVE, probably a bit more.

[Jackdaw33]

Also, the LEAVE camp will be much more strongly motivated to get out and vote than will the STAY camp. That could have a major effect, as will the turnout.

[tonyav]

My local rag published ( another ) in / out referendum poll yesterday. Looks like the majority of those whose that have taken part ( me included ) want out.

http://www.expressandstar.com/news/polls/2016/04/11/latest-eu-referendum-poll-brexit-or-remain-what-do-you-want/

[EDDIE51]

You can put money on your choice here
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/remain-vote-percentage
I'm strongly tempted to have a few £ on 50.1 > 55.0 % stay

[237SJ]

I think the stay camp will win. It might be a small margin but I think that at the end of the day, the public will be too scared to leave the EU

[EDDIE51]

Coral are offering 5/2 on that , very tempting!

[Zacs-Master]

Yep, think common sense will prevail and your predicted stats are spot on, Eddie.

[-Talbot-]

I think the stay vote will win. If it doesn't and we exit then I can see the end of the EU.

[Jackdaw33]

As I have intimated, amongst the general public there is much more passion amongst OUT than IN. Even if I were on my death bed I would hire an ambulance to take me to vote OUT. If I were on the IN side I wouldn't bother. My taxi is already booked for June 23.

[Ken4155]

I believe there are many (myself included) who intend to use their vote but who are, at this moment in time, totally at a loss as to where they will put their cross on the day. And, unless they are 100% convinced by the 'Out' campaign, they will more than likely vote to stay in.

[Zacs-Master]

I think you mean that the Out voters are shouting the loudest Jackdaw. That doesn't mean they're the majority.

Think back to the general election.

[Jackdaw33]

I don't quite understand, Zacs. At the last election my heart told me UKIP but my head said Tory, as the only realistic way of getting this referendum. I cannot be alone, surely?

[Zacs-Master]

I don't quite follow but my point was.....
Those who wanted a Labour government shouted the loudest.....but they turned out to be the minority.

[jourdain2]

If the weather is very bad (or very good) on Polling Day, then I think that 'Leave' will just win. Like Jackdaw, nothing on Earth would stop me reaching that polling booth, I care so much for my country and grandchildren.

It's early days, however, Dave's leaflet was a mistake, the EU is flexing its muscles over international companies' taxation and their plans for 'harmonisation' are dribbling through despite their attempts to keep things under cover until after the referendum. Much depends on 'Events, dear boy, events!' But I'm going to have a small flutter (I'm not a gambler) on 'Leave'.

[tonyav]

The promise of a referendum probably won Dave a lot of votes that the Tories probably wouldn't have got without it.

[Jackdaw33]

They didn't shout the loudest; just a few feeble squeaks.

[EDDIE51]

Jackdaw33 You can register for a postal vote! Saves having to go out and cheaper than a taxi!

[Zacs-Master]

they did on here jackdaw. And the same think is happening again.

[Zacs-Master]

Thing.