when will the triple dip recession start?

[youngmafbog]

so we have now come out of the double dip and there is talk from Citi that we may get a triple dip.

If however you look at this sensibly all we are talking about are variations of around 1%. Whilst it is best to remain in the positive these small differences are not really any sign whatsoever.

Surely talk of recession brings us down when really all that we are talking about are small bumps in the graph. Should we not talk it up instead ?

[Gromit]

It is a measure. You could talk up the inflation figure, unemployment figures etc but basically you want the graph to go one way, and if it is going the other way we are failing.

Pretending we are not in recession or a period of slow growth is deluding ourselves.

[DTCwordfan]

Given the rate that the private sector is growing as to jobs, something is afoot.....

On R4 Goldman Sachs were forecasting 0.8 to 0.9% for Q3 with the Jubilee/Olympic bounce back at 0.5-6%. They also were saying that Q2 may end up in the positive, once all taxes in (and that's the time that the final numbers can be tied down - and over a year to two years after the event) - at the end of the day, the first calculations are done by limited polling and estimations.......

[emmie]

not sure about double dip, or indeed triple dip recession, but just heard on the news major job losses in the automotive industry..

[DTCwordfan]

As to any dip, hopefully we are through - but then there are some major events which could impinge on the economy at large: IMO, these are:

1. Collapse of Greece - and more importantly Spain or Italy (and France?)
2. Middle Eastern War
3. The continued slowing of the Chinese economy
4. Russian gas prices and actions to increase it further plus their relationship with Ukraine
5. An intensely cold winter.

[DTCwordfan]

some interesting reading for the econometricists among you.

http://www.dailyfx.co..._U.K._GDP_Report.html

[emmie]

DT, i tend to agree with the points you raised, Greece is teetering on the brink, China's economy is surely slowing, America is about to re elect Obama. I would be very very surprised if Mitt Romney were to win, that would lead to a more unsettled USA. Perhaps with Obama four more years will see a better turn around for the US economy..
However i would like to see a total withdrawal of all troops from Afghanistan, there never was a valid reason to be there, and it's an unwinnable situation.
Britain will stagger on a bit longer, but can see more protests on the streets and more job losses.
If the EU doesn't start getting it's act together it will also see the larger nations going under, Spain already in dire trouble, and Italy to follow.
If the idea that has been mooted for a EU financial union then all hell will break loose, led by the money men in London, they will not wear it, and indeed why should we.

[pdq1]

As em10 says Fords are pulling out of Britain and going to Turkey to build the Transit. As they are not in the EU why do we insist on staying and maybe our economy would be far stronger without having to fork out £bns to be in it plus all the restrictions about paying immigrants families abroad and many other petty things that drag us down.

[KerrAvon]

I'm afraid the EU will innevitably die, it's entire foundation is flawed. Oddly enough over 10 years ago I read an interesting article by Woodrow Wyatt about why the EU must fail. His words are ever more relevant. We should get out now. Thankfully we did not join the Euro.

[LazyGun]

You need to have some baseline economic indicators, so as to measure trends and performance. At the moment it seems premature to me to talk about emerging from recession - we do still seem to be bumping along a bit.

Generally, I would agree that we should try and talk things up rather than be pessimistic about everything.