Wythenshaw By-Election

[mikey4444]

As expected, a comfortable win for Labour, in a Labour seat, so no great surprise there. But the swing to UKIP was +14.51%, while the swing against the Tories was -11.03%. Also Labour gained 11.2%, in a very low turnout, which they will be pleased about.

So it would seem that the predicted theft of Tory votes by UKIP is now coming true. Only a by-election of course, but an interesting result nevertheless.

[Sqad]

A fair summing up mikey.

[sandyRoe]

In a by-election disaffected voters feel free to cast a protest vote.

[jno]

yes, interesting, you can expect half to scuttle back to the Tories at a general election (or at least vote), but that's a pretty big swing. Cameron will need to put his wellies on.

[Gromit]

UKiP were 5th in the 2010 General Election in Wythenshawe so even as a protest vote they have become a lot more credible.

Good to see the Greens getting more votes than the BNP.

[LazyGun]

Very low turnout though - 28%, many of which were postal votes, so I am quite sure what conclusions you can fairly draw from this, beyond the fact that this was a safe Labour seat, that the Tories are unpopular in many urban areas in the North, and that UKip has become the new repository for the protest vote, a switch away from the traditional home for such votes, the Lib Dems, who have yet again lost their deposit.

And it is always difficult to draw conclusions from local elections, by-elections and euro elections and extrapolate the results in those to the voting intentions in a general election.

[mikey4444]

Waders more like jno !

[sandyRoe]

Have UKIP not shot the BNP's fox?

[LazyGun]

"so I am NOT quite sure" that should read, not " so I am quite sure" :) A horse,A horse, my kingdom for an edit/review button :)

[mikey4444]

Sandy...there will always be a few racist nutters in Britain...they have to put their vote somewhere !

[Gromit]

// It unlikely that many Lib Dem voters would have gone for UKIP, so it looks like it was as predicted, UKIP taking votes away from the Tories. //

Protest voters do strange things. The LibDems profited from Dis-satisfied Labour voters at the general election. Most of those have returned to Labour but those still dis-satified with Labour and the Coalition Parties would vote for UKiP as the best protest vote.

[mikey4444]

I still maintain that few Lib Dem supporters can bring themselves to vote for UKIP. They have discovered over the last few years, that when you sup with the devil, you had better have a very long spoon available.

[Gromit]

The result:


Labour 13,261 55.34 +11.21
UKIP 4,301 17.95 +14.50
Conservative 3,479 14.52 -11.03
Liberal Democrat 1,176 4.91 -17.44
Green 748 3.12 N/A
BNP 708 2.95 -0.90
Captain Chaplington-Smythe Monster Raving Loony 288 1.20 N/A

[Old_Jim]

Bear in mind that the number of people voting for UKIP didn't change, just most of those who previously voted for the coalition parties stayed in bed. The biggest loss was to democracy. People are so bored with politics that only those wanting Britain to commit suicide can be bothered to vote. The words turkeys and Christmas come to mind.

[ToraToraTora]

to quote Blackadder, .....Gloating is a sign of insecurity mikey. You appear to terrified that Labour won't win the next election.

[mikey4444]

Old Jim...not sure that what you say is correct ::

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/f35.stm

As you can see, in 2010 UKIP polled just 1405 votes, 167 less then the BNP. As they had 3 times as many votes yesterday, I would have thought that Farage would be delighted this morning.

The real losers were the Tories and the Lib Dems, especially the latter. I'm afraid that unless Clegg does something dramatic, like pulling out of the coalition, he risks being sent right back to the political doldrums of the 60's and 70's when they had single figure seats in Parliament. Tough decision for him I agree, and not one that I would like to have to make.

[mikey4444]

TTT...your repeated talk of gloating is getting tedious. I am merely reporting on what happened yesterday in Wythenshawe. If a miracle had happened and the Tories came first, would you not be doing the same ?

Anyway, you are missing the point. Nobody expected the Tories to win. Its the rise of UKIP which makes for interesting reading here...they are clearly eating into the Tory vote. In 2010, the Tories came a respectable second, with 25% of the popular vote, in a safe Labour seat. Yesterday they were beaten into 3rd place, with less than 15% of the votes.

[DrFilth]

as bert in the pub use to say you will always find a few wazzocks vote for the toffs

[mikey4444]

But a lot less than last time DrFilth !

[youngmafbog]

True Mickey, Cameron needs to get his act together and appeal to middle England again, as does Ed if labour are to win.

However neither party will win because of supporters like you and I, it is the floating middle (eg Mondeo/Essex Man) who will win or loose the election for either of them. A safe seat for labour with no middle england does not show much for Ed either. UKIP does appeal to middle England, Farage is saying what they feel. Unless Ed and Dave get their act together they could be in for a rough ride.

Will UKIP support turn into seats at an election. For the next election I doubt it but the following one could get very interesting (especially if labour loose Scottish votes on top of it)

[ToraToraTora]

from the OED: "Gloat: dwell on one’s own success or another’s misfortune with smugness or malignant pleasure:" - recognise anyone?